The Research On Our Country's Financial Security Under Globalization

This dissertation is supported by 2006 Tianjin Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project(TJZZ06-2-007)——The Research on Our Country's Financial Security under the Economic Globalization.With the acceleration of financial globalization, financial markets in many countries become more and more closely connected. Financial globalization, while promoting worldwide economic development, has changed fundamentally the structure of financial market in our country and brought the new challenge to the participants and the decision-makers of financial market. This trend has caused the localized financial crisis which has rapidly spread among many countries and spotlighted the susceptibility, the linkage and the destructiveness of the financial crisis. The financial risk confronted by many countries is remarkably increasing, among which the countries with emerging markets are faced with the severe challenge. China is a rising and developing country. With the enhancement of the"two-way opening"in the financial industry and advance of opening capital account, the security of our financial system is undergoing the unprecedented tests. The entrance of foreign financial organizations, the participation of domestic financial organizations and the increase of capital account liberty will transform the competing environment of domestic financial industry. In the meantime, they will also result in many difficult problems to the domestic economy, the financial macro-regulation and financial supervision. All of these will enormously jeopardize our financial security. Therefore, with the context of financial globalization, we have no choice but to face two contradictory problems: how to maintain a steady, continuous economic development with the help of the financial globalization and how to maintain our financial security while keeping the financial risk under control. They call for our immediate solution. Based on the research of the domestic and foreign literature, from the perspective of globalization, this dissertation aims to broaden the significances of financial security, clarify the relationships of financial security, financial risk and the financial crisis and furthermore, explore the relationship between financial globalization and financial security. The dissertation gives an extensive study and analysis of the relevant theories on the financial security at home and abroad. It also presents a systematical elaboration on the latest development of the financial crisis theory, especially after the Asian one. It dwells on the theories of financial fragility, pre-warning management and risk management, which are indispensible for the exploration and construction of pre-warning management. This dissertation summarizes the research achievements of the financial security practice, contrasts the various pre-warning systems of the developed countries like us, Britain and Japan and analyze the experiences which those countries have attained during their pre-warning for our own enlightenment and improvement. The safe operation of financial system will be run through various service subsystems in the financial market. The dissertation carries on the discussion on the principles of this safe operation. It aims to illustrate that the development and steady, continuous operation of China's finance paves the way for China's financial security, from various aspects like the security in the fields of banking, currency, stock market, debt, insurance and financial system. The dissertation gives an analysis on the connection and dynamic change of the safe operation of various financial service subsystems, on the principle of the process and the way of the mutual restriction and influence among various financial securities. From all above, the dissertation analyzes the endogenous and exogenous character of the safe operation of financial system, thus paving the way for the financial security research.This dissertation first analyzes the present situations of China's financial industry, international capital flow, and capital account liberty and RMB exchange rate system arrangement. It then carries on quite a comprehensive and systematical analysis of the realistic situation of China's financial security by applying the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, theoretical research and empirical analysis, as well as the macroscopic and the microscopic analysis. This dissertation discusses the major problems of China's financial security, establishes China's pre-warning management theory and studies the basic situation of the safe operation of financial system, the significances and the basic characteristics of the monitoring and pre-warning systems as well as the principle of the China's pre-warning management theory.This dissertation discusses the major problems of China's financial security, establishes China's pre-warning management theory and studies the basic situation of the safe operation of financial system, the significances and the basic characteristics of the monitoring and pre-warning systems as well as the principle of the China's pre-warning management theory.Based on the studies of pre-warning system, this dissertation constructs China's pre-warning indicator system, which adopts the advantages of combination of general genetic algorithms and artificial neural network. It sets up their optimal model, proposes the plan to construct the pre-warning support system based on the general genetic algorithms and BP network model, constructs the pre-warning system model and proves the applicability and the feasibility of this model. In this dissertation, the proposed model is verified by using relevant statistical data of the financial industry, and the present situation of China's financial security is synthetically judged by means of the constructed pre-warning system. Relying on the constructed pre-warming system, the dissertation explores the pre-controlling measures and crisis management of financial security suitable for Chinese distinctive situation.