Research In Bass Model Extension

Technology diffusion is an important field in technology innovation research. It is the proceding process of broad technology diffusion process. The technology diffusion process is difficult to forecast, because of its complexity. This essay constructed the XYZ model, and empirically analysed the technology diffusion process of China telecomunication industry.This essay formulated the XYZ technology diffusion model, based on Bass diffusion model. XYZ model assumed the technology diffusion process is influenced by two factors: potential value expectation and real usage performance. The potential value expectation is independent from diffusion process and unpersistable. The real usage performance is driven by technology supplier, based on their best investment decision. XYZ model justified the assumption of Bass model, overcomed the deficit of Bass model, that the model can only forecase the succeed process but not the failure process. XYZ model includes more input variables than Bass model, which result in more percise forecasting and wider usage area.This essay also extended the XYZ model to multi-variable forecasting model, concised model and multiple player competition model. Multi-variable forecasting model put the factors from technology supplier, user, and the technology itself into the model, make the model more percise. The concise model simplify the model into only one equation, make the model applicable to the comparasion search. The multiple player model considered the situation that many competitors compet in the market and can be used in market competition structure analysis.Based on XYZ model, the essay empirically analysed the diffusion process of mobile technology and internet broad-band access technology in China. The research showed that the mobile technology is in the middle term of diffusion process. In the short future, the annual growth rate will excess 7%. The internet broad-band access technology is still in the beginning of the diffusion process, the growth rate is low. The fixed-line network operator is difficult to compete with moble network operator without market reform. The essay finally use diffusion model to analyse the market structure and give advice in telecommunication industry reform: 1. open the telecommunication market and import virtual network operator. 2. promote the complete free inter-connection of operators to reduce the network externality. 3. build telecommuniation service exchange to achieve total competition. 4. regulate the information disclosure system to improve the service transparency.