The Study On New Product Diffusion Mechanism Based On Improved Bass Model

Innovation is the core factor that enterprises participate in market competition,and the new product is the ultimate performance of enterprise competition ability.The marketing of new product is the last part of the enterprise flow including research and development,manufacture and sales.It is key to sustain enterprise continuing operations and continuous innovation.However,the marketing of new product can not achieve overnight.It is dynamic process that a minority of consumers adopt the product at first and more and more individuals trend to accept it.The process is called new product diffusion in the field of management.Based on the theory of innovation diffusion,this study faces to new characteristics of product market,focuses on new problems of product diffusion,and combines the theory of product life cycle,word of mouth and other related theory.The study is carried on with comprehensive research method including the combination of documentary research and practical investigation,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,modeling and simulation analysis,theoretical and empirical analysis.It improves the classic Bass model from three points including seasonality,word of mouth and imperfect substitution relationship in competitive environment.It is researched based on the system route,that is,"modeling,theoretical analysis,and empirical test".The main research conclusion includes the following six aspects:First,under the environment of the Internet and the experience economy,the current product market has three main characteristics: shorter product life cycle,more important online word of mouth,unprecedented fierce competition.After summarizing the improved Bass model systematically,the study considers that it is necessary to improve the Bass model based on the new features of product market.Second,weekend and holiday demand fluctuation are the binary elements of seasonality in new product diffusion.It demonstrates that the intertemporal demand shift results in the weekend fluctuation while the extra demand cause the holiday seasonal effect.The study combines the intertemporal demand shift pattern and binary elements of seasonality,and proposes the Bass Model with different seasonal dummies in different seasonal structure called DISBM.The empirical result suggests that DISBM has better performance of estimation and forecasting than other seasonal models.Third,quantity and proportion effect of word of mouth are two main effect of word of mouth on new product diffusion.The study analyzes the properties of the solution and find that two effects of word of mouth positively correlated with peak time,peak sales,cumulative sales at peak time and total sales under normal circumstances.But if the imitate effect is much more than innovation effect,the proportion of negative word of mouth is higher,the attenuation of product diffusion will get slower.;if the net inflow of interest group is positive and the innovation effect is large enough,even the proportion of negative word of mouth gets higher,the peak sales will increase.Fourth,new product diffusion has two realistic characteristics: the market environment of multi-product and the product relationship of imperfect substitution.The study finds that each product trends to reach the potential market capacity finally on condition of imperfect substitution.The results of simulation analysis suggest that the substitution effect can make products to accelerate the attenuation,and supply effect will contribute to the diffusion.The synthetic action of competitive interaction parameter and time span can lead to different product competition situation,such as “avoid the brunt” and “the students surpass the teacher”.Fifth,based on 128 movies,using the unbalanced panel data of the total capacity of 9546,empirical results show that the improved Bass models has better fitting and forecasting performance than the classical model.Sixth,movie diffusion accords with the general law of new product diffusion of S type curve,and it also has some special factors.The main innovation points of this study include the following four aspects:First,this research puts forward the improvement framework of Bass model including four elements: diffusion subject,diffusion channels,diffusion cycle and diffusion environment.It points out the main direction of Bass model development.Second,based on the intertemporal demand shift pattern,the study distinguishes binary the weekends and holidays fluctuation and proposes the seasonal model which provides a novel method to address the seasonal issue.Third,introducing word of mouth into the classic Bass model,the study reshapes the product process,extends the model from two points of quantity and proportion adjusting effect,and establish the new product diffusion model on two adjusting effects.Moreover,it analyzes the properties of the solution and find the main law of new product diffusion under the influence of word of mouth.Fourth,the study builds the competitive diffusion model on condition of imperfect substitution including innovation effect,imitation effect and competition effect,from two products market to several products market,from launching on market simultaneously to successively,which makes the model accord with actual product market and contributes to the development of competition diffusion research under complicated product relationship.