A Study On The International Oil Price And China Oil Policy

Since the event "9.11" in 2001, the growth of the world economy dropped into a downward slidingboard, which directly resulted in a distinct decline of the demand for crude oil in the international oil market. However, at the beginning of 2002, international oil price started to rise steadily, after the downturn before. In the April 2006, international oil price expanded in a large extent, and breached the toll-gates of 70 and 75 dollars per barrel in succession in a short time. In 2007, international oil price turned to 70 dollars per barrel, taking a new thrust to 80-90 dollars per barrel. With reiterative fluctuation and fierce appreciation, international oil price will bring an innevitable impulse on China of which the demand for oil has been growing.Consequently, this dissertation begins with a study on the international oil market, and takes a probe into the caricteristic of international oil price to grasps the future tendency of international oil price. After that, combining with the influences international oil price would bring to China, this dissertation researches the orientation for the reform of oil policy in China, and proposed a series of measures which should be tanken by China government systematically to enhance the resistibility and the flexibility of China economy when facing the fierce oil price fluctuation.Firstly, this dissertation summarizes the distributing pattern of world oil resource and the matching situation of oil demand versus supply, by using the describing statistics. Through the camparison between the areas producing oil and those consuming oil, this dissertation makes a conclusion that, in the whole oil market, the oil supply will satisfy the oil demand in long term, however, because of the imbalance and the distinction in the oil distribution, actually, the oil market equilibrium represents to be rather frangible, and the adjustable mobile oil production becomes tighter, which would be easily impacted by unexpected incidents. Therefore, in principle, the international oil market will keep balance in the long term. At the same time, there still exists the probability of oil supply interruptions in some areas and impetuous oil price fluctuation in short term.Secondly, to make a more scientific argumentation, this dissertation takes out the short-term and long-term forcasts for the international oil price trend, by applying time series analysis method. This dissertation choses the monthly WTI data from 2001 to 2007 as the samples, to make a short-term forcast. The result of the forcast shows that, in the future short term, international oil price will wander between the high price of 65 and 85 dollars per barrel. To make a long-term forcast, this dissertatio extends the sample time span to be 1980 and 2006. The approach provided is that, by using of the multi-scale wavelet decomposition, extract the signal of low frequency form the original oil price series and estimate it by a SVR model, however, adding the well-regulated signals of high frequency to the forecasting process. The result of the approach shows that, international oil price will enter into a steady downward trend in long term without the random interruption.Thirdly, after grasping the charicteristic and tendency of international oil price, this dissertation starts to study the impact from oil price fluctuations on the macro economy of China.This dissertation applies VECM to analyse the influence oil price fluctuation bring to China, using variables including World Oil Price, GDP, Import and Export Volume, Output of the first the second and the tertiary industry. The results from the Impulse response Function and Variance decomposition analysis based on VECM show that, the impact on the first industry is tough and rigid, and the second industry has a certain adaptability to the impact, the tertiary industry represents a strong impact resistance, while, China's exports has a conductive fuction, expanding the impact on China. According to the results, some political propositions are put forward, in term of the present economic status of China.Forthly, this dissertation reaserches the orientation and the measures of China's oil pricing mechanism reform, by analysising the current policy of China's oil pricing mechanism, under the circumstances that the international oil prices continued to rise. The conclusion shows that, to improve China's oil pricing mechanism, a total oil prices converge should be taken on the basis of the current oil price formation mechanism remaining basically unchanged, the set of the finished oil market management laws and regulations should be speeded up, the government ought to adjuste the price management and accelerate the finished oil distribution management system, and the development of the oil futures market should be concentrated on.Finally, this dissertation analyses China's relating oil policy, under the circumstance that international oil price flutuates fiercely. By comparing the oil policies the typical World countries set to respond to the rising oil prices, and in light of China's own specific situation, this dissertation presents such suggestions as, building up strategic oil reserves, exploitating oil alternative energy sources, increasing domestic oil supply to deal with the short-term volatility of international oil price, improving oil utilization to follow the long-term declining oil trend, and achieving diversification of oil imports to alleviate the imbalances in the distribution of oil resources which adversely affects international oil price.