| Oil plays an important role in the promotion and protection in the national economy and social development. With the opening to the outside world and our country's rapid economic development, the international oil price fluctuations, as well as oil imports continued to expand, will inevitably have an impact on macroeconomic growth in our country. Being against this background, this thesis is to study the deep-seated problem of the economic impaction by the fluctuations in international crude oil prices and domestic crude oil consumption of China. The structure of this thesis is divided into seven chapters.In Chapter 1, we focused on the literature reviewed. Mainly from the following aspects were introduced: First, the correlation between crude oil price fluctuations and economic growth literature review. Second, the oil (energy) prices with the PPI, CPI the literature review; Third, oil consumption and economic growth literature review. In addition, this article describes the main structure and innovation.In Chapter 2, we introduced the neo-classical model of economic growth-Solow model, on this basis, the use of neo-classical model of economic growth to study the theory of relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Finally, theoretical analysis of the energy factor in the economic growth process. Chapter II is part of the core theory of this paper.In Chapter 3, firstly, we analysis the main factors which impact the fluctuations in international crude oil prices from the perspective of qualitative analysis, mainly including crude oil demand and supply factors, the exchange rate factors, the oil stocks as well as the factors such as unexpected events. Secondly, Brent crude oil prices to be interpreted as a variable to OPEC country's oil production, OECD countries, oil consumption and production, as well as China's crude oil imports for the explanatory variable, regression model was set up to carry out inspection. Test results show that in addition to China's oil imports is not significant, the other variables are significant. Finally, I used AR model and GARCH model to fit the characteristics of international crude oil price changes. Fitting results indicate that GARCH (1,1) model fits better the characteristics of the rate of change in the oil price.In Chapter 4, using of Daqing crude oil spot price of our country and the European Brent crude oil spot price data, we study the dual long memory of international and domestic crude oil market returns and volatility, on the basis of many newly proposed models such as ARFIMA model, FIGARCH model and ARFIMA-FIGARCH model.The results reveal that China's crude oil market yields sequence does not exists the characteristics of long-term dependency, while the long-term memory effect exists in the fluctuations sequence. While in the foreign crude oil market, there is strong significant long-term memory. In the same time, tail parameters and the estimated value of the "leverage effect" parameters and their significant results show that Student-t distribution used to describe the yield of the crude oil market clearly exists in the sequence of "peak fat-tail" distribution in nature. We use the TGARCH model to describe the crude oil market fluctuations of the "bad news" of the non-symmetrical effect. The "leverage effect" is necessary.In Chapter 5, we use regime switching models to test the asymmetry between the means and volatility in China's crude oil market price. According to the results of estimation and test, we find that there are"low price","middle price"and"high price"in China's rude oil market price. Moreover, the results show the asymmetry of China's crude oil market price comes from not only the different characteristics of the three regimes'mean and variance, but also the transition probabilities and expected durations. In addition, we also found that the current market price of crude oil in China is in the stability of the worst, with an average duration of the shortest of the "low price phase." Secondly, my analysis of our country's current oil pricing mechanism disadvantages should be market-oriented direction, and gradually set up the domestic oil market, and actively promote the construction of crude oil futures market.In Chapter 6, we have adopted a VAR model of the pulse function method and the corresponding variance decomposition techniques to analysis the fluctuations in international crude oil prices on China's PPI and CPI and its impact pathway. Empirical analysis shows that changes in domestic oil prices more than 80% depending on the changes in international oil prices; Changes in international oil prices Granger causes changes in PPI, while the inverse relationship does not exist. In the short term, CPI has a reverse pull on the role of PPI, CPI and PPI on the role of the forward conduction is not significant. And thus arrive at the corresponding policy implications. Then we use the non-symmetry of the method of cointegration between the international crude oil price volatility and the China's GDP. Empirical analysis shows that there is an asymmetric cointegration relationship between these two variables. That is, the rise in international crude oil prices on China's economy hampered by the role of prices is greater than the effects of the economic role, but the role of non-symmetry is not obvious.In Chapter 7, we first empirical analysis the relationship between the international crude oil prices and China's oil imports in the VAR framework, empirical results show that the fluctuations in crude oil prices of oil imports is due to Granger, but not China's oil imports have an impact on international crude oil prices, oil price changes has a positive impact on oil imports. We use the dynamic correlation coefficient to study the relationship between the China's oil imports and oil consumption, which shows that there is a high correlation of the same period. The next study of the relationship between China's oil consumption and economic growth , the test results show that in long-term process of economic operation, the oil consumption could contribute to economic growth, in the short term economic growth do not to promote a rapid increase in oil consumption. In addition there is a significant negative correlation between the growth rate of oil consumption and economic growth, suggesting that rapid economic growth will lead to decline in the growth rate of oil consumption.
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