International Rice Price Fluctuation And Its Impact On China

The international rice market price is the indicator of world rice production,and price fluctuations will affect market decisions and trade policies.Compared with staple foods such as wheat and corn in the international market,rice has long-term price fluctuations.Studying the causes and effects of rice price fluctuations is an important policy for China to formulate effective policies to suppress the impact of rice price fluctuations on domestic market players and ensure food security.In this paper,using data such as rice trade volume and price,with the help of data statistics,periodic algorithms and spatial price equilibrium models,the supply and demand structure and price fluctuation characteristics of the international rice market are studied,the main effects of long-term and short-term factors are analyzed,and their mechanism of action is summarized.And draw the following conclusions: First,prices in the international rice market fluctuate greatly.The share of trade volume in the world's total output has long been below 10%,and the supply and demand of trading countries are likely to affect prices.The main trading countries take rice as the staple food,and most of them are developing countries.The exporting countries are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia.The top ten rice exporters account for 93.08% of the total export volume.The production areas are concentrated,and they are easily affected by natural disasters.The yield is lower than The global average,low inventories and high volatility,protectionist policies directly affect rice exports.The importing countries are numerous and geographically dispersed.The top ten importing countries account for only 37.94% of the total imports,and the supply is insufficient.The low elasticity of supply and demand and the characteristics of oligopoly have led to "risk ups and downs" in international rice prices.Second,the international rice price has obvious stage characteristics,and it is currently in the rising zone.From 1980 to 2001,the price of international rice generally declined and fell to the lowest point,mainly due to the expansion of the harvested area of exporting countries and the large volume of exports.The price continued to rise from 2001 to 2008.The key factors were the stagnation or even decline in the expansion of the harvested area,and the slower yield growth;the positive impact of the price of wheat and corn was greater;India has repeatedly raised the minimum export price and the Philippines' large imports have caused price explosions.The fundamental reason for the increase is the slow growth of staple grain yields in the two countries,the decline in harvested area and low inventories;natural disasters and the weakening of the US dollar have exacerbated short-term supply and demand tensions.Since 2008,prices have fallen but are generally higher than the pre-volatility level,the area of harvested area has decreased,the yield growth rate has been slow,demand has steadily increased,and other production costs have increased.Third,the international rice price has an inverse relationship with my country's rice stocks.With the long-term ups and downs of rice prices at home and abroad,and the large number of small farmers in the country engaged in rice cultivation,the free entry of low-priced rice into the domestic market will reduce the surplus of producers and reduce the enthusiasm of rice farmers.Therefore,the increase in international rice prices will help ease domestic rice support.Policy pressure and vice versa.After 2008,the international rice price dropped,and the ratio of rice stock consumption in China has risen to 82.56%.This article makes the following recommendations: First,make ensure domestic rice supply.Gradually explore the reform path of the rice minimum purchase price policy to avoid the rigidity of the minimum purchase price,increase the Green Box policy,and increase the enthusiasm of the rice industry stakeholders.Second,improve the agricultural product price monitoring and early warning mechanism.Long-term tracking of the supply and demand data of rice trading countries and other economic indicators,predict the international rice price trend.Third,actively participate in the development of the international rice industry.Strengthen the leading role of overseas agricultural demonstration centers,build an international large grain merchant,expand the domestic and international markets of rice trading countries,maintain stable and orderly prices at home and abroad,and mitigate the negative impact of international price fluctuations on China.