Studies On Methods Of Strategic Environmental Assessment Orienting Sustainable Development

Since the theory of sustainable development has been widely accepted from 1980's, it has become a tendency for governments to make macroscopically economy strategy. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA), an important tool performing strategy of sustainable development, has been attached importance to many governments, since it plays a vital role in environment-economy decision-making. However, with SEA's practices become increasingly profound, the SEA's practices show visible limitations such as lack of scientificity, systematicness and integrity. Consequently, Studies on correlative theories and techniques of environmental impact assessment for plan (PEIA) are the important subjects of implementing the scientific development concept and realizing sustainable development strategy.Urban comprehensive planning is like the baton and the course light of a city development during several years or even longer period, the quality of which is of vital importance to the development prospect of a city. Therefore, to evaluate the urban comprehensive planning objectively and scientificly with the concept of scientific development and the strategy of sustainable development, is not only beneficial to the scientific decision making, but also of great practical significance to promote continuous, healthy, rapid development of urban ecosystem.Based on metasynthesis, concerning the inherent requirements of the urban ecosystem development, a case study was carried on integrating environmental science, systems science, economics, forecast and computer technology disciplines and methods. Firstly, the thesis analysed the state of resources utilization, environmental quality, coordinated development of the urban ecosystem in Wuhan city. Then, a simulation study was conducted using systems engineering, machine learning algorithm and statistical methods during urban comprehensive planning, and "Wuhan urban comprehensive planning (2005-2020)" was evaluated. The main content and conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1) The status of resource utilization from 1988 to 2004 in Wuhan was evaluated with ecological footprint theory and model, which showed that the excessive consumption of resources is the key reason to cause the regional ecological deficit; To further the dynamic evaluation of resources utilization, the ecological footprint important factors were selected by using partial least squares model, and the the factors with relatively low value of VIP were removed; the ecological footprint during urban comprehensive planning were predicted with set pair analysis dynamic model in the view of uncertainy, and the relationship between the ecological footprint and economic development was analysed. The research content and methods has certain innovations in the part.(2) The relationship between environmental quality and economic growth from 1988 to 2004 in Wuhan was analysed based on the Kuznets Curve and its measurement model. It indicated that the income inequality stimulate the decline of environmental quality, but economic growth was still important reason of environmental deterioration. Meanwhile, the higher income gap strengthened the positive effects that the economic growth worsen to the environmental pollution. It indicated that the greater the income gap, EKC curve more steep, the turning point of environmental improvements enhanced, and later the turning point appeared.(3) A coordinated development indicator system in Wuhan was established using qualitative and quantitative methods, which composed of the target layer, the constrained layer, the subsystem level, the criteria and indicators with hierarchy structure. It could reflect current situation of coordinated development of Wuhan city. According to the indicator system, the comprehensive delevoping level of economy, society and resource environment of Wuhan from 1988 to 2004 was analysed based on principal component analysis and coordinate development model. The result showed that the urban ecosystem comprehensive development level improved steadily and coordinated development were facing tremendous pressure. The coupling relationships among economic, social and environmental resources experienced serious disorders, moderate disorders, mild disorders, on the verge of disorders , and barely coordination. (4) The important influential factors of coordinated development in Wuhan city were selected by partial least square. Based on this, the tendency of the coordinated development degree during urban comprehensive planning were simulated with support vector machines. Compared the planning values and forecast values, it found that Wuhan could not reach the state of good coordination development in 2020. In the end, A series of recommendations and countermeasures of urban coordinated development were proposed.