| The petroleum is our the most main energy for long time, facing under condition that the international crude oil price upsurges continuously, have become the topic that the international economic enterprise body focuses attention most .The past international rise and falls to the international oil price fluctuation might it not be, throwing with the concern of the height, value, and adopt to prevent the strategy from, expecting to reduce various cost. The international crude oil price is the different price because of it oneself the oil article trades the term, usually pointing the API and containing the sulphur to measure one of the three greatest index signs oil prices or mantises that is close by with place districts combine, pulsing a premium price establish. However the present international crude oil futures market trades to spread widely, the stock on hand price is almost in accordance with recently a crude oil forward price of the period completely. This phenomenon manifestation alleges to trade the most transparent futures market, also having to the international crude oil price very and greatly it predominance. Because the bargain of the futures market, in addition to risk evading, also include the financial speculation operator of very high comparison, various arbitrage behaviors of these speculators, usually also or so international crude oil price.The international is for controlling the dynamic state of the international crude oil price, all predicting the international crude oil price actively. However, basic and last and international crude oil price, still belong to the category of the inscrutability at the present time up to; The estimate result of the international crude oil price, so far cut, still had been suffering till the realistic rigorous challenge. Investigating its reason is, the bargain mode of the current international crude oil market, is to regard oil price formula as the basis; And predominate the index sign oil price of the oil price formula, then is deeply manipulated by speculator it, due to the speculator's status complicacy, its behavior pattern has again rather many difference, speculator for the substance supply and demand condition of the crude oil market, again and very unfamiliar, so these person's businesses international crude oil futures, usually over-emphasize an analysis, and ignore the international crude oil basic situation condition. Such business mode, make international crude oil price, usually deviate the crude oil substance supply and demand and should have it balanced price.The international crude oil price is not only by the supply and demand phenomenon of the basic situation predominate, but also affected by an analysis in technique and news an analysis of the above finance and economics personage. Therefore, the all countries government, enterprise unit is in addition to actively carrying on the estimate of the international crude oil price, at the time of long-term message becoming clear gradually, should also control the fluctuation trend of the international crude oil price in different category definitely. Should also step up the opposite price of paying attention to the international crude oil in different category price to change the condition, can urge the enterprise body quickly footstep, fight for every kind of beneficial business opportunities, conduct in order to the enterprise body lasting.The crude oil resource of world is limited, and any product all contain its life cycle, being the product into the mature period, the consumer should consider in lieu of energy, to have When that product run out, the product usage that can act for. Crude oil energy need that everybody uses through the years, all with low contain the sulphur quantity crude oil mostly, however low contain a times that occupy costliness in sulphur crude oil, the all countries and enterprise bodies all faces the cost it to aggravate, how the all countries and enterprise bodies realize that the international energy supplies of change, the energy consumption changes the trend, and with victory to the swift-footed advantage, expand the market to become the biggest advantage, will is all countries and enterprise bodies in response to the matter of the close observation.Keep the quantity and come up and see from the world crude oil resource, the international crude oil category is numerous, depending on its proportion, sticky degree and containing the sulphur and measuring the amount etc. various characteristics and having the difference, can predict the high sulphur crude oil comparison in the oil deposit up more abundant, and sweet crude basic top have develop all, the supply of the sweet crude increases and measures from now on limit, increase the quantity and will come from the high sulphur crude oil morally. Therefore, from now on under the condition of global crude oil becomes increasingly heavy, become inferior, how the all countries and enterprise bodies faces the environment and supply the fluctuation trend, according to the opposite and economic efficiency in international crude oil in different category, new set up, reform, develop various production equipments, the development of dynasty has the new generation of the good function refines oil industry of development trend, to raise the international competition ability, is to is a very meaningful research.This research international crude oil is with the API, contain the amount of sulphur, place district and do not be classified into international crude oil to different variable level in light quality crude oil, medium quality crude oil, heavy crude oil respectively, inquire into each variable level respectively in different year, through the years the influence of the international oil price, inquire into the international crude oil price in different category to develop the trend and opposite fluctuation trends through the years. Expect to be through the detection that study, provide the country government and enterprise bodies, aim at current low reference with sulphur crude oil costliness and value times of environmental protection consciousness, at look for crude oil import source, and dispersion petroleum import source it strategic, ability provide related information, then have the help in each item acting for the development, research, developments of the energy or new energy. The cost of the since low all countries and enterprise bodies, and increase the enterprise competitive advantage. The main purpose of this research can be divided into as follows several principal arises. To wish to control the latest advantage, look for the most suitable development term in enterprise body the machine in time.(一) inquire into the international crude oil API in different category the fluctuation trend of the price through the years.(二) inquire into the international crude oil in different category to contain the sulphur quantity the fluctuation trend of the price through the years.(三) inquire into the international crude oil in different place district the fluctuation trend of the price through the years. (å››) inquire into the international crude oil API in different category opposite relation that price changes through the years.(五) inquire into the international crude oil in different category to contain the sulphur quantity opposite relation that price changes through the years.(å…) inquire into the international crude oil in different place district opposite relation that price changes through the years.The research of this text is divided into mostly six chapter: Chapter 1, aim at this text the research the background and motives and study the importance and purposes, and put forward a little bit creative this text and its research the restrict, putting forward for whole thesis a generally of structure, be used as later the starting point of the research content. Chapter 2, consume the type for the sake of solution all countries energy, and investigate the changes situation of all countries energy, this research cultural heritage study draws up to change from the international energy consumption, study of study, different category oil price of international oil price, take in to understand the international oil price in different category development trend.Chapter 3, research method, due to studying the sample to obtain not easy, for making data been also an integrity, one by one American energy department OPEC( OPEC), non- OPEC( Non- OPEC) in the data of every kind of crude oil price with international different category starts the data for this research sample beginning through the years from the international crude oil in different category in 1978-2007 years. This research is after collect and tidy up year by year, then consults the Fifth Edition,(2005) international crude oil manual( The International Crude Oil Market Handbook,2006), starts original beginning to data again each one checks and after searching, have it the data each one and should make whole and compile one by one, with have the data more is integrity, and the benefit needs in the follow-up institute. At study the data analysis tool full general adoption SPSS( Statistical Package for the Social Science) to statistics the software, this research adoption statistics analytical method as: Diverse regression analysis( multiple regression), double factor variation number analysis( two- way ANOVA), single factor variation number analysis( one- way ANOVA), have another the heavy comparison( multiple comparisons) and describe to statistics analytical etc.. In chapter 4s, will aim at this research sample basic data description, the origin study four variable factors: API, contain amount of sulphur, district do not and different year, four variable factors its basic distribute as follows: the API is partial: be classified into crude oil API degree to three quasi- parts in floods: API0~30 is" heavy crude oil" to have 22.6%,31~ of API 39 is" Central plains oil" to have 61.1%,40~ of API more than 60 have 16.3% for" light crude oil". Contain the sulphur quantity part: crude oil the amount of sulphur that it contain is classified into three quasi- parts in floods: contain the sulphur to measure 0.5% in0.01~ as" light crude oil" to have 50.7% and contain the sulphur to measure 2.5% in0.51~ as" Central plains oil" to have 42.1% and contain the sulphur to measure 4.05% in2.51~ as" heavy crude oil" to have 8.2%.The district do not be partial: the place district that belong the crude oil sample data it do not be classified into the five greatest districts level: the district of America has 15%, African district to have 37%, the district of Asia to have 37%, European district to have 5%, other continent districts to have 6%.The year is partial: the year that belong the crude oil sample data it is classified into district level every five years: 1978~1983 is( level,1984~ in 1989( level,1990~1995 is( level,1996~2001 is( level,2002~2007 year by year is( level.In chapter 5s, analyze according to this text substantial evidence result.1.Inquire into the whole and different crude oil category, different year with the regression analysis to affect this research to make use of the diverse regression analysis( multiple regression) to the crude oil price: predict different crude oil" contain the sulphur quantity"( sulfur content)," API"( American Petroleum Institute), and different production district do not, different and international oil price year, wait for four variables to inquire into the influence to the crude oil price, from the 1978 from 2007, in1210 samples several times, four influence of variable upon the price presents the obvious sexual relationship." Contain the sulphur quantity"," API"," district do not"," year" four predict the variable, entering to all present the obvious in the regression equation. Four predict the variable, entering diverse related coefficient of regression equation as.455, it unite to explain variation quantity as.207, that is four variables can unite to predict the 20.1% variation quantity in" price". In regard to individual variable of hermeneutic is the best with the estimate power of the level of" year", it explain to measure to 19.9%, is" contain the sulphur quantity" it to explain to measure to 0.7% the next in order, two consociations of variable estimate power amounts to 20.7%, standardizing regression equation as: international crude oil price=.1*API+-.061* contains the sulphur quantity+.032* district+.444* year.And the different crude oil contains amount of sulphur, API, district do not, year and price Pearson related analysis, know the price and different crude oils to contain the amount of sulphur, API, year to all have the relativity existence. Whole research result and analysis, four influence of variable upon the price all contain obvious sexual relationship.Chapter 6s then find according to this text research, putting forward a summary to be used as the conclusion and suggestions. We have an importance detection from the data, in the different category crude oil API, with the ratio that China oil, heavy crude oil have higher, the each is 61% and 23%s.The mankind's consumption makes it a rule before all with light crude oil, Central plains oil for lord, and the ratio that heavy crude oil have is already high now too light crude oil, this shows a condition, mankind consumption toward crude oil the habit have carried on toward the high API gradually from the low API, that is crude oil already from light, Central plains the oil use gradually to heavy oil at consume. Have the 7% in the most high ratio with Asia in light crude oil, have 6% for Africa the next in order. The usage of the majority of Asia is national, all using to come from the crude oil that the middle east produce. The African region hides the quantity to enrich most the district for the world crude oil, under the condition of multiple-choice, the naturally choice refines most easily, therefore, the light crude oil has the higher ratio, and this be like now in accordance with the district of Asia national crude oil physically import the source the most parts is Africa is show.The part in heavy crude oil we also finds, having the higher ratio with Africa, Asia, the region of America, the each is 8%,7%,6%.Know through the years from cultural heritage data, the region of America because of refining oil technique nicety, establish to the oil refining of the heavy crude oil in the United States burnt the disguise places the nicety the oil refining the equipment, and the catalyst disguise place the nicety refine oil equipment, its oil refining the gross profit is all more liberal, so the heavy oil have the higher ratio and is apprehensible. But the African region all regard light crude oil, China oil as principle through the years, the ratio that heavy crude oil have is been high now in light crude oil, can understand the mankind to consume to change gradually from here and more, at light, Central plains oil price space upsurge of it, and mine under increasingly precise condition in technique equipment, the enterprise is for reducing the crude oil cost, increasing the enterprise income, refining oil the company adjust flexibility to their manufacturing procedure, heavy crude oil in refinement, to cope with every kind of different and material expenses fluctuation. Therefore, all countries are facing the trend of the international crude oil price upsurge, should also adopt more elastic strategies, to promote all countries competition ability.The international crude oil for scholar is pricing through the years of rise and fall the research of the fluctuation, almost limit at the variety and total and economic performances of the crude oil price; Interest rate, index number, stock price etc. the relation between guerdon and international crude oil price; And the estimate of the international crude oil price, these also have been subjects of economist concern, it think that the variety and total and economic variables of the oil price contain close connection. When the crude oil price is very low, the foreground that economy develop likes very much, the stock price also rises immediately; Be the crude oil price the rising contrarily, grow up and then become hard to reach, stock price because of decline.And the crude oil price undulates negative influence to produce and took up employment to have immediately. To consumer, the oil price soars the commodity price aroused to soar, is still negative impact; To rely on the manufacturer of the petroleum main factor gained a living and speech, the exaltation of the cost is also a negative influence necessarily to its profit.This research will differ from the former scholar each related factor of the study and international crude oil prices, this research will in creative way, international crude oil is with the API, contain the sulphur quantity and produce the area and do not distinguish analyses the international crude oil of the different category, and be classified into the heavy quality crude oil, medium quality crude oil, light quality crude oil, then inquiring in to further inquire into in international crude oil in different category it through the years price changing trend, international crude oil in different category it through the years price changing trend it changes the opposite price, this is the origin grind it is creative of a.The economic high take-off in Pacific Asia region new nation grows up in recent years, the gasoline and fuel oils needed break all and successively a little bit high. Make the oil article need of the world resided high don't snow, let the crude oil import the country on various cost, even become snow to add the condition of frost up. All countries for long time for the sake of the supply and stabilities of the assurance crude oil resource long-term, be occupied in asunder the district oil source buys the estimate of strategy and international crude oil price, becoming international last and many petroleum to import the consistent energy in country policy direction.However, all countries are facing the whole and international energy price to upsurge the great environment under, in addition to looking for the crude oil to import the source, and scatter the petroleum to import the source, list as the important policy direction the outside, this research expectation ability from enhance to control to change the trend and need a management measures to the international crude oil in different category supply, so that control the market pulsation to develop and open to produce various energies with new superior quality, low costs, to reduce the weak degree that petroleum supply effectively, should list as the importance to solve the subject in response to ising all countries, this is the special features of this research.The energy in all countries supplies the subject of the safe need consideration, depending on the energy category and then ising different face to, and depend on all countries state of the nation different, having its different policy point. Generally speaking, the nation of Asia compares to concern the tendency that the quantity run short, and the west nation then compares to value the price trend. Because the environmental protection realizes the upsurge in the last few years, world to the quantity of the fuel oil, and the fuel oil burn the hour pollutes to exhaust air, practicing the more and more strict restrict. The enterprise body even faces the situation that the world environmental protection requests the scope to raise increasingly. The international community practices the new standard process to the finished product oil quickly, request the finished product oil that the oil refinery provides to sweep the environmental protection more. Therefore, the all countries and enterprises are honour able are low to contain the times of sulphur crude oil and value environmental protection subject to costliness, have to observe the development trend of various different and international energies actively, and develop each item to act for the energy and related technologies, to respond to resolve the problem that fronting face, to promote the competition ability of each international enterprise body.Taking a comprehensive view of the international all countries government, enterprise body is occupied in replying the environmental protection, costliness low contain the sulphur crude oil etc. the current conditions problem. An international crude oil price rise and falls the fluctuation, affecting the economic system of all countries substantial, each scholar also all wear the variety and total and economic performances of the crude oil price; The relation between interest rate, index number, stock price guerdon and international crude oil price. Proper everybody's thinking responds the counter plan it at the same time, affect the international crude oil factor to have no matter how much kind, whole and great environment under of international crude oil price it rise and fall the motion, all countries should value its whole, observing the development of the economic benefit and the development of the opposite prices of various international energies. Also depend on the need of all countries, draw up a set of respond its operation project to avoid the insurance the strategy, to avoid the embarrassing situation of buying the costliness crude oil, and can more the delicacy turns the connection of examining the international oil price in different category.Therefore, this research plans to differ from the former scholar each related study factor of the study and international crude oil prices, this research will with from the new angle, international crude oil is with the API, contain the sulphur quantity and produce area do not, distinguish analyses the international crude oil in different category respectively, and further be classified into various crude oil to heavy quality crude oil, medium quality crude oil, light quality crude oil, then inquire into in the international crude oil in different category the price changes the trend through the years, and further inquire into it changes the opposite price condition. To provide all countries government and industry fields understand the fluctuation trend of the international crude oil in different category, putting forward in advance related respond the policy, is for this research it another item sets up.
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