The Studying Of Process Of Product R&D And Occurrence Mechanism

Globalization of economy intensifies competition, while the changing technology and market shorten lifecycles of products. Therefore, successful and rapid research and development (R&D) is becoming an inevitable choice for enterprises to win the competition and obtain competitive edge. However, the process of R&D is quite complicated, being regarded as Black Box by economists and innovation specialists. This paper conducts analysis on the Black Box in the aspects of micro-process, and makes discussion on the occurrence mechanism of product R&D from the view of technology evolution.This paper conducts analysis on the factors in the process of R&D, elaborates the underlying factors and external factors of R&D, describes the model in the process of R&D, market choice model and its complexity, proposes the spiral process in the process of R&D, studies the R&D mechanism and the evolution of R&D technology, and sets up a theoretical framework for technology evolution. The paper makes research on the index system of R&D project risk and evaluates it with Fuzzy (Frequency) Integral. As for the determinant of product R&D, i.e. brain drain, the paper uses random process model to forecast.The innovative points in this paper include:(1) Through deep research on the underlying factors of R&D, this paper elaborates that the factors of knowledge, information, technology and intelligence are four key ones in technical research process. The demonstration of these factors' exploration and utilization leads to new technology. And the interaction of these factors also causes product R&D.(2) It establishes a spiral uprising model in the process of R&D, and elaborates that in the process of R&D, the development of all the factors is unbalanced, and product R&D always makes breakthrough in the comparative advantage of resource and then improves the weak links. It is in this spiral development that enterprises constantly make advances.(3) It reveals the chaotic phenomenon in product R&D and its causes, and states that chaotic phenomenon is almost the universal rule in technical research, and people' s creativity shows obvious volatility in chaotic stage. After the chaotic stage of product R&D, new technology and products will emerge and mutate.(4) Through analysis on the form of technology evolution, the paper establishes a theoretical framework for technology evolution. It is proposed that product R&D is in fact the inheritance and variation of existing technology; inheritance means succession of the technology, and variation means the sudden changes of technology. It is proposed the path of technology fomation.(5) This paper establishes a risk evaluation index system of project R&D, and makes dynamic evaluation on the risk in the process of R&D. It also sets up a random model of technical talents flowing change rule, serving as a new method in the research of technical talents flowing change rule.