The Major Food Crops Production Layout Changes And Location Optimization Study

Food is the first necessity of the people; grain is the source of the food. As for the world's most populous and relatively low per capita land of China, stability and increasing grain production must be considered a basic,long-term and strategic goal. In recent years, international and domestic grain market supply and price instability situation, improved grain production urgency and grain security. It is worth noting that, land resources which grain production depends significantly decreasing, while most of the reduction land is sown area. Especially in the south-east coastal areas, with the industrialization and urbanization, rural land occupied by non-agricultural construction is very common. At the urgent grain security,the existing grain production land decreasing and reserve land resources are limited, scientific production of grain distribution,make clear the development of the regional orientation of grain production are the key to solve the above problem. Specifically, this article focuses on three issues: During reform and opening up, What about the situation of Chinese main grain production distribution? What is the behind mechanism? How about the future development?In this study, based on the relevant research and theory, use descriptive statistical,GIS,spatial statistical to analysis historical distribution changes and spatial concentration of grain,wheat,rice and com. On this basis, separately for both provincial and county level production of grain, apply the currently space econometric model, analysis the distribution factors. Further more, build grain regional optimization model, focus on "grain security scenarios" and "grain policy scenario" to analysis the optimization distribution of grain, and bring forward the corresponding policy. The main research contents include the following five areas:The first part is the literature review. To begin with, this part summarizes the theories about agriculture production distribution mainly from the macrostructure and microstructure hands. Secondly, comments on regional programming analysis.Thirds, summarizes the application of spatial economic in agriculture and spatial econometrics model method. And then points out the shortcoming of present research and at the same time puts forward the theoretical and practical significance of this study.Second, the historical changes and the status.Based on statistical data, the article analysis China's grain distribution changes on the south-north,the three major areas,the seven major areas, the provincial and county levels during 1978-2007, then summarized in four phases characterized. Furthermore, explore grain distribution problems.Third, empirical analysis. At a brief analysis the resources,economic,market,technology,policy aspects effect of grain disteibution. Based on reletavely theory, build spatial interaction effect geography weight and economy weight fixed (random) effects of spatial lag (error) econometric model, demonstration analysis the effect of grain,wheat,paddy,corn from province level during 1978-2007.Bulid geography weight spatial interaction effect space lag (error) effect model, analyzed changing production effect of grain from county level duing 2000-2005.Fourth, linear programming. On this basis, established a Chinese grain production distribution optimization model, design a "grain security scenarios" and "grain policy scenario", with GAMS software, use linear programming methods, through empirical analysis to pointed out the future of wheat,corn,rice diatribution direction.The last part is the summary of this study, as well as proposals to grain distribution.The results of this study show that: China's grain production regional pattern changeing is distinctness, grain distributionn center of gravity track along the "north-east to south-west", changing direction from "southeast" to "northeast".Chinese grain distribution gradually to the relative abundance of arable land, fewer non-farm employment, high cost-effectiveness of the north and midland. Wheat production distribution "expanded" in north area and central area is affected by per capita arable land, irrigation and technological advances, "reduced" in north-east, south-west, east area by natural disasters and the impact of non-agricultural industries. Clustering pattern of wheat is effected by regional conditions more than regional economic conditions. Rice distribution "increase" in north-east area is affected by the improvement of irrigation conditions, economic advantages and technological progress, "reduced" in east and south area by natural disasters and the impact of urbanization.Corn distribution "stable" in north area and north-east is affectd by the scale expansion of arable land per capita, the market demand, transportation conditions and policies, "reduced" in west-south by the impact of natural disasters. Provincial and county levels of grain production empirical analysis shows that in addition to natural conditions, economic and market conditions are a key element of its changes, "the north expansion" of grain production is affected by the improvement of irrigation conditions, technological progress, food demand. "South shrinking" is affected by the non-agricultural industries and the urbanization, on the results of the analysis of county economic advantages, non-farm employment opportunities and market demand coefficients are greater than the provincial, the pattern of the formation of concentration of grain production more than the impact of regional economic conditions, geographic conditions, at the same time the geographic spatial spillover effects significantly affect its distribution.Location optimization analysis indicates that, "grain security scenario" expand the low grain self-sufficiency rate and weak capacity of the production scale region, "grain policy scenario"expand the high grain self-sufficiency rate and high production ability to regional scale. Therefore, wheat production should develop in the south-west, Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River areas, rice production should develop in the north-east, the Yangtze River Basin and south-east area, com production should develop in the northern spring com, Huanghuai summer com and south-west area.The main innovation of this paper is: Since reform and opening up,the article have a comprehensive and systematic study of China's major grain the history distribution changes, the existing problems, the impact of location factors and the regional optimization; Use geographical and economic weight space interaction effect variable, analysis factors of Chinese grain production distribution, enhance to explain the model. Based on the existing provincial and regional research level, extended to the county level, and has enriched the study perspective.