Research On Grain Production Capacity In The Main Grain Production Area In Middle & East Regions Of China

The research of grain production capacity in the main grain production area in middle&east regions of China is one of the most essential components to ensure food security of China. Therefore, the systemic analysis of grain production situation is of great mean to decision-makings and strategy of China's grain production.On the basis of the analysis of grain production situation in these regions from 1980 to 2005, the author has studied diversified factors which affect the grain production capacity and potential. The factors include sown areas and grain yields, which could be subdivided into many conditions such as cultivated fileds, multiple cropping index, planting structure, light temperature water PEG, quality of cultivated field, labors contribution, technology and modernization factor, economic index, policy affection, ecological limit, etc. In the paper, author has also analyzed the correlation among all of the above indications. Then, author formulated a combinational mathematics model of neutral network to forecast the production of grain from 2005 to 2020. Analysis indicated that, although the descend trend of sown area and cultivated field is overwhelming, increase of the supply of grain is still reasonable, which could be achieved by improvement of grain yield. There are strong correlations between output and yield of grain. Herewith, if we keep the sustainable development of yield of grain, meliorate the structure of crop variety, improve the quality of grain and seeds, and enhance the quality of the cultivated field by compensatory mechanism of the grain for green policy, grain production capacity could be improved. Following, author has researched the mechanism which caused the volatility of the grain supply in the main grain production area in middle&east regions of China, and offered a policy options. In the end, the author discussed the reasons of descend of the sown area and ascend of the supply of grain, then he draw a conclusion that the kernal strategy to maintain the food security of China is to make proper policies to protect and improve the grain production capacity of unit area.