Study On Driving Effects Measurement Of Changes Of Grain Production And Spatial Optimization In Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone

Grain is the material basis of human survival and development. As a strategic special goods, grain security is the foundation of national security, and also an important guarantee of social stability and national economic development. Grain supplies mainly comes from domestic production in China, and the major grain producing areas are crucial for our grain supply. As one of the 13 major grain-producing areas, Jiangxi province, whose grain production plays an important role in China. In granary of the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone( PLEEZ) in Jiangxi province, since 2009 approved planning and construction, the social economy and agriculture had a rapid development. However, in recent years, the big changes have taken place in the time and space pattern of grain production.Whether the grain is balance in time and space or not is an important factor affecting the grain safety. Therefore, this paper integrated with grain production concentration analysis, the regional difference analysis method, the GIS, factorization model which is based on extended Kaya identities, in-depth analysis from two dimensions of time and space of the PLEEZ changes of spatial pattern, the driving mechanism of grain production, and by using comparative advantage index, putting forward the strategy of the optimization of spatial layout of grain production.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) From the point of time dimension,the area sown to grain, grain yield and grain output of the grain production of the PLEEZ has experienced three stages roughly. The first stage is from 1995 to 1997, rising in the area sown to grain stable, rapidly rising per unit area yield of grain, the grain output stable increase; The second phase is from 1998 to 2003, shrinking the area sown to grain, grain yield level rising gradually, the total grain output a downward trend; The third phase is from 2004 to 2013, the acreage sown to grain, grain yield stability enhancement, total grain output continues to grow.(2) From the space dimension of grain production of the PLEEZ, grain production center of gravity has transferred from Nanchang county, Fengcheng city to Poyang county, Yugan county and Duchang county. With the deepening of the PLEEZ construction, grain production and population space differentiation seriously, gathering to the lagging economic area of grain production.(3) The driving factors of temporal changes of grain production of the PLEEZ show that the strength effect contributes to the increase of grain production of the total effect is strongest, the second is the structure effect and scale effect, breadth effect is smallest.(4) The driving factors of space differentiation of grain production of the PLEEZ show that the scale effect of Poyang county, Zhangshu city, Duchang county, and Yugan country is stronger, the restraint effect of YuShui area and Fengcheng city is stronger. Breadth effect of Yugan country, Xingan country, Gaoan city, Anyi county is stronger, the restraint effect of Duchang county, Nanchang county, Guixi city and Dongxiang county is stronger. Structure effect of YuShui area, Fengcheng city, Yugan country, Nanchang county, Xingan county, Poyang county is stronger, the restraint effect of Anyi country, Ruichang city, Jiujiang county is stronger. Strength effect of Poyang county, Xinjian county, Jinxian county and Fengcheng city is stronger; the restraint effect of Dean country, Hukou county, Xingzi county, Jiujiang and Ruichang city, Pengze county is stronger.(5) Based on the PLEEZ caused by the characteristics of spatial pattern changes of grain production and the driving factors of spatial differentiation, and combining with the advantage theory, the PLEEZ in grain production layout optimization direction are as follows: From the point of view of the SAI, Nanchang county, Jinxian county, Xinjian county, Duchang county, Yushui district, Linchuan district, Fengcheng city, Zhangshu city, Gaoan city, Yugan county and Poyang county et al. 11 counties(cities, districts) have comparative advantages, actively developing moderate scale management, while other areas need to further improve the level of intensive use of cultivated land. From the point of FI, Nanchang county, Anyi county, Leping city, Wuning county, Hukou county, Xingan county, Linchuan district, Fengcheng city, Zhangshu city, Gaoan city and Yugan county et al. 11 counties(cities, districts) have comparative advantages, can be formed preferentially focused on Agricultural products production base, while other areas need to take active modern farming methods to improve economies of scope of dominance index. From the point of JI, Nanchang county, Xinjian county, Jinxian county, Duchang county, Yujiang county, Guixi city, Xingan county, Yushui district, Linchuan district, Dongxiang county, Fengcheng city, Zhangshu city, Yugan county, Poyang county and Wannian country et al. 15 counties(cities, districts) have comparative advantages, the preferential formation of advantage in producing grain producing areas, while other areas consolidate and stabilize grain production, effectively assuming theirselves’ responsibility of food production. From the point of view of QI, Nanchang county, Xinjian county, Leping city, Fuliang county, Yongxiu county, De’an county, Pengze county, Xin’gan county, Linchuan district, Fengcheng city, Zhangshu city and Gao’an city et al. 12 counties(cities, districts) have comparative advantages, vigorously developing the high standard farmland construction, while other areas need to further strengthen the construction of farmland irrigation and water conservancy, accelerating the comprehensive transformation of the medium low yield farmland, steadily improving the capacity of grain production.