Evidence Theory Based Evaluating And Controlling Mobile Commerce Transactions Risk

With the rapid development of information technology, Mobile commerce as a new economic and industrial model makes all-round impact on social and economic aspects, eliminates the time and geographical constraints and brings great business opportunities by making full use of its mobility. Mobile commerce dependent greatly on wireless network and mobile terminals because light portable mobile terminals create a free from constraints of time and space business environment. Although mobile terminals bring convenience, the its characteristics of lightweight and easy to carry bring a certain degree of risk. Mobile commerce contains most of the traditional e-commerce security issues because of its mobility, at the same time, and also produces a large number of new security issues as a result of its mobility. All of these factors over mobile commerce has brought about tremendous risk and would cause serious economic losses and social problems. Therefore, it's very important to make the correct assessment of risk of mobile business transactions and choose risk aversion strategies.In the thesis, the risk factors for mobile commerce transactions are studied and classified and the causes of these risk factors are analyzed. Then, a scientific evaluation index system of risk factors for mobile commerce transactions is established based on the conclusions of empirical study. Based on evidence theory, mobile commerce transaction risk assessment models and mobile commerce transaction risk control system prototype are established in the thesis.Relevant basic theory is reviewed at begin of the thesis, and draw 10 kinds of factors of the impact of mobile commerce transaction security. Then mobile terminals, mobile networks, mobile access and mobile applications are summed up as 4 types of risk factors of mobile commerce transactions through designing questionnaire and analyzing the samples data of 10 kinds of factors by principal component factor analysis methodIn this paper, five steps and the principles of establishing the indicator system for assessment of mobile commerce transactions risks are describe. Index system of assessment of the mobile commerce transaction risk which is constructed from target layer, layer-level indicators and two indicators of layers is established, and specific indicators are given weight.Mobile commerce transactions risk assessments are uncertain assessment of multi-level and multi-index. Based on the evidence theory, mobile commerce transaction risk assessment of the uncertainty can be quantified through the belief function, and risk assessment of multi-level and multi-index of indicators can be simplify to a single overall assessment. Evidence theory does not require prior access to the priori information and conditional probability in contrast to traditional Bayes theory and the form of its reasoning is very simple for the risk assessment of mobile commerce transactions.Mass decision matrix will be changed from a kind of forms into a variety of forms, such as precise, interval, fuzzy and vacancy forms because of imprecise, incomplete and fuzzy data as well as the limitations of expert knowledge. For this change, multi-attribute decision-making evidence reasoning models with incomplete information are proposed by transforming different form of mass decision matrix with fuzzy membership function.A wireless network associated with a variety of security technologies is described, database of mobile commerce security measures is created, and prototype of mobile commerce risk control is established. Based on evidence theory, the prototype can assess risk of mobile commerce transaction and then can provide specific security solutions according to the main source of risk of mobile commerce transaction and historical data.Finally, this thesis discusses the main contribution of our research work and provides some possible future extensions.