Research On The Theory And Method Of Strategic Risk Assessment

Turbulence in business environment comes with great uncertainties,increasing corporate strategic risks and the possibility of business failures.However,the traditional strategic risks management based on risk identification and evaluation has limitations in dealing with the unpredictable turbulence.In this regard,research on resilience focusing on building the ability to cope with these changes rather than assessing unknown external changes gives inspiration to the improvement of the traditional strategic risk management.This paper combines multiple methods(including literature review,questionnaire survey and case study)to systematically explore the theory and method of strategic risk assessment from the perspective of resilience.The main content in this paper are summarized as follows.(a)The theoretical foundation of resilience-based strategic risk assessment.Through literature review of resilience and risk management,this part develops the theory of resilience-based strategic risk assessment,that is,faced by the huge uncertainties in the turbulent business environment,the focus of an organization's strategic risk management and assessment should be building its own resilience.Furthermore,this study applies a system view and considers resources,structure,culture,and relationships with external stakeholders as its four basic dimensions.(b)The conceptual framework of resilience-based strategic risk assessment.Through systematic review and content analysis,this part conducts a comprehensive literature search and selection,summarizes the conceptualization and operationalization of organizational resilience,and then extracts specific indicators of the four basic dimensions of organizational resilience mentioned above,which enhances the content validity of the measurement of organizational resilience.(c)The measurement instrument of resilience-based strategic risk assessment.This section firstly designs the measurement items of organizational resilience through drawing the connotation of each indicator explained in the existing literature and the relevant items of mature scales.Subsequently,this paper modifies the questionnaire through Q-sort method,and conducts preliminary test with a convenient sample,pilot test with a small-scale sample,and confirmatory analysis with a large-scale sample to further examine the reliability and validity of organizational resilience's measurement scale.(d)The relationships among organizational resilience,corporate innovation and long-term performance.Using the developed measurement instrument of organizational resilience,this section tests the relationship between organizational resilience and long-term performance and the mediator role of corporate innovation through the structural equation model,which further verifies the nomological validity of the measurement of organizational resilience and gives new insights into the intermediate mechanism between the organizational resilience and corporate long-term performance.(e)The application of resilience-based strategic risk assessment.Based on the evaluation indicators developed and verified in the study,this part uses the evidence reasoning method to assess the four garment manufacturing enterprises located in Jimo Industrial Zone of Shandong Province.Detailed evaluation results and comparisons of the four case companies' organizational resilience are provided,along with recommendations of specific ways and paths for companies to improve their organizational resilience.This paper contributes to building the resilience-based strategic risk assessment theory and method,which makes up for the lack of traditional strategic risk management in dealing with uncertainties of the turbulent business environment and provides evaluation tools for companies to diagnose and improve their organizational resilience against turbulences.