Study On Cultivating And Developing The Industry Chain Of Wind Power In China

Mankind is confronted with the increasing lack of energy and environmental damage,so the sustainable development and dean development have been the general consensus in this era.Compared to the traditional power,the wind power can be taken as widely-distributed,clean and sustainable energy which gets rid of the dependence on nonrenewable fossil energy and defuses the fuel cost risk of normal power so as to ensure the cost stability of power generation,which basically solves the environmental cost of discharge of sulfur,dust and carbon caused by the normal power.In the aspect of technology,the wind power has been widely recognized as the renewable energy with large-scale commercial value besides hydropower.Therefore,the wind power can effectively mitigate the climatic anomaly,improve the safety of national energy and promote the economic growth of low-carbon industry,so it is highly favored by policy institutions,investing & financing institutions,R&D institutions and project developers. Nowadays,the wind power has been the integral part of developing the strategy of sustainable energy in many countries around the world.In recent years,the speed of developing the wind power abroad greatly exceeds our anticipation.It is estimated that the average growth rate of installed capacity of wind power reached 28%in the past ten years.At the end of 2008,the accumulative total installed capacity has reached 121188 MW around the world,with new increase of 20000 MW per year.Our country has rich wind resources.It is conservatively estimated that the technologically exploitable amount of wind energy is around 1 billion KW in the land and off-shore.Our government has attached great importance to the development of renewable energy and has issued a series of statutes and policies of promoting the development of wind power industry with Renewable Energy Law as a core.The installed capacity of wind power has shown the explosive increase.Till the end of 2008,the accumulative installed capacity of wind power has reached 12152.8 MW after the consecutive double for three years,ranking the fourth in the world.With the expansion of installed capacity of wind power,the equipment manufacturing of wind power has been a dark horse.At the end of 2007,the number of enterprises producing the wind-power equipments and related spare parts has reached more than 100.Domestic installed capacity of wind-power equipment accounts for more than 60% in domestic wind-power market.These data indicate that the wind power industry in China has entered into the new phrase of scale development.The market capacity of wind power has been greatly expanded and been one of the largest wind-power markets. Moreover,to introduce,digest,absorb and re-innovate the technology of manufacturing the wind-power equipment has been speeded up.The worldwide important manufacturing base of wind power equipment is forming.But,the development of wind power industry in China is confronted with some risks and challenges.The international competitiveness of manufacturing wind-power equipments is so weak because the key technology is manipulated by others.Thus,the wind-power market is opening up and the domestic and foreign investments have been attracted by tremendous market potential and have been engaged in furious competition.It is particularly important to have a study on cultivating and developing the industry chain of wind power,especially the exploration of establishing the mechanism and method of powerful international competitiveness in Chinese wind-power equipment manufacturing.China's wind power industry faces with the asymmetrical dilemma between wind-power investment cost and benefit.The cost-and-benefit analysis model shows that there are two aspects of economic problems checking the sustainable and healthy development of wind-power industry:one is the higher cost of wind power,which restraints the improvement of the wind-power investment value;the other is the lower price of wind power which can't be extensively attracted the involvement of funds from the society.Among the factors determining the wind-power cost,the elasticity coefficient between wind-power equipment price and financing cost is the main factor of controlling the cost.Therefore,the solution to the higher cost of wind power should start from strengthening the cultivation and development of the wind-power industry chain,such as to improve the nationalization level of wind-power equipments,perfect polices supporting wind-power financing,effectively integrate the industry chain resources of wind power and promote the industry value of wind power,in order to cut down the price of wind-power equipments and the cost of wind-power investment.The solution to the lower price of wind power is to get ride of the problem that the normal power takes the internalization as the core and to gradually perfect the price formation mechanism and to improve the value of wind-power investment.There is tremendous room for developing the industry chain of wind power and potential advantage of giving full play to the scale effect of manufacturing the wind power equipments.Based on the logistic model and learning curve model,the simulation analysis on the evolution model of wind-power industry shows that the industry chain of wind power has an expansively developing prospect.Firstly,the installed capacity of wind power will keep highly composite growth speed over the next decades(before 2030) and the wind-power market will strongly expand;secondly,the potential of manufacturing wind-power equipments is huge.If only meeting the domestic demands of wind-power market,the manufacturing industry of wind power will form the scale effect in the short term and aggressively cut the price of wind-power equipments;thirdly,with the exploitation of learning effect,there is plenty of space to decrease the cost of wind-power investment,which greatly increase the competitiveness of wind-power industry.To promote the development of the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments needs to strengthen effective protection and suitable cultivation model. Compared with the international advanced level,the current wind-power industry especially the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments lags behind technologically.Faced with the furious competition of leading countries manufacturing wind-power equipments,the game theory model shows that it is imperative to set up necessary and modest protection measures for such an infant industry as wind-power manufacturing industry.In the selection of developing pattern in the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments,the appropriate cultivation pattern of industry chain has much effect on the manufacturing industry of wind-power equipments.To promote the innovative ability should be put accent on in the industry development.We should keep on the organic combination between introduction & digestion and autonomous innovation and avoid taking the old path that the market can't exchange the technology.After the analysis of the mechanism of wind-power price formation,the price of wind power actually has the marketization basis,but it doesn't have the qualification for complete marketization in reality.The key is that the normal power which forms the competitive relation to the wind power has realized internalization in reality.Reasonable wind-power price should exactly reflect the constitution of wind-power cost and the change of demand.Seen from the optimization of wind-power price formation mechanism,the internalization of external cost in normal power is the key to form reasonable wind-power price and the price subsidy is the concrete substance of going reasonable price formation.The regulation of marketization has more superiority over directly administrative price regulation.The optimization of wind-power price formation mechanism should change the bidding pricing to the policy that the bidding determines the enterprise.We should perfect the franchise bidding rules,unify the preferential policy of wind-power project and establish the long-term joint mechanism with the scarce extent of fossil energy.The supporting policies and measures should be continuously improved to influence the wind-power price formation.The scientific planning should be taken a view from national strategy and industry policy and be perfected from the aspects of supporting system,service system and market system.The vertical and horizontal relation in developing the industry chain of wind power should be sorted out so as to timely solve the existing problems in the development.What's more,it needs to grasp the rule of wind-power industry evolution and establish the powerful guarantee mechanism beneficial for the growth and development of wind-power industry chain.Due to the evident scale economy of wind-power industry,the negative externality of one link might damage the whole industry chain because of the strong technological correlation among industry chains,the strong asset specialization and the obvious strong linear structure of wind-power industry chain.Thus,the integration of wind-power industry chain is imperative,especially after the differentiation of wind-power industry has developed to some extent,it is necessary to prospectively establish mechanisms and economic polices corresponding to the industry integration.To gain a perspective on the development of China's wind power industry,there is enough room for growth and a huge market with big potential.China's wind-power industry will continue to grow at a relatively rapid speed in the coming decades and will be possible to lead the world wind power.The development of a new industry,however, will be curbed by various uncertain factors.According to the probability,the growth and developing tendency can be predicted,but no one can predict the future precisely. Therefore,some fundamental work has been done for further explore in this dissertation. Many new problems in the wind-power industry chain deserve further study and exploration,especially the further integration and evolution of wind-power industry chain.