Research On Green Electricity Price For Promoting Energy-saving And Renewable Power Development

In market economy,price is the most effective adjustment mechanism,a reasonable power price policy plays a decisive role for changing the situation that the energy consumption is too high and the pollution is serious in the production and consumption of electricity at present of China.For the realization of the sustainable development about China's electric power industry,from the unique green angle of promoting energy-saving and renewable power development, making research on the evaluation of the performance of electricity price policy and its optimization,and bringing forward a set of the green electricity policy proposals,have very important theoretical value and practical significance.Peak load forecasting model based on time-series multiplication model and GARCH model,and maximum peak-valley difference prediction model based on combination optimization model were built.Time series multiplicative model was selected to fit the peak load sample sequence,and GARCH error amending model was chosen to amend the fitting errors to improve the prediction quality. Three suitable single models were selected to fit the maximum peak-valley difference sequence,then the optimal weighted combination prediction model was established according to the principle that minimizing the sum of forecasting square error.An analysis of the current status of energy-saving,emission reduction and development of renewable energy power about the power industry in China was made,some problems existed currently were point out,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were brought forward.The current electricity price mechanism of China was introduced,and some analysis and evaluation about its performance were made from the unique green angle of protecting the supply of conventional energy generation,energy saving and supporting renewable energy generation.The improvement research about the linkage mechanism between the coal price and power price was made.The model of cost-profit analysis about thermal power plant was established,especially the concept of"profits coal price flexibility"was brought forward to reflect the impact extent to the profit of thermal power plant when coal price appreciates.The current problems in coal and electric power price linkage mechanism were put forward,and the corresponding improvement proposal was given.Peak-valley price model based on peak-valley time period partition and DSM was build.Fuzzy mathematical method was adopted as theoretical basis for the peak-valley time period partition,then the peak-valley price model was built considering the response of consumer.In order to reduce the generating motivity of small thermal power plant during peak periods,so to promote energy-saving and emission reduction,a price restriction during peak periods of using electricity was set in the constrained condition,namely the price during peak periods would never be higher than the running cost of small generators.Research on the formation mechanisms of renewable energy power price in China was made.Economic theory was applied to the analysis of promotion policy for renewable energy,the impact of different promoting policies on the structure of electricity market and the social surplus was explained to provide reference for decision-making.According to the characteristics and problems of current price policy for renewable energy electricity,the improvement thought of renewable energy pricing mechanisms and optional pricing policy ideas for each kinds of renewable energy technology were brought forward.Recommendations about green electricity pice policy were made to promote energy conservation and the development of renewable energy.