Tracing The Socio-Economic Impacts Of Barani Village Development Project Of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

Agriculture is a single most dominant sector in the economy of Pakistan. Almost68 percent of country's population is in rural areas and are directly or indirectly linkedwith agriculture for their livelihood. Poverty in Pakistan is primarily a rural phenomenonand urban poverty also originates from deprivation of the rural poor. This study stressesthe role of agriculture and rural development in alleviating absolute poverty. Ruraldevelopment is the provision of social and physical infrastructure and ultimatelyenhancement of agricultural productivity.The purpose of the research is assessing the socio economic impacts of Baranivillage development project. The empirical analysis draws on representative surveys offarm households in Barani areas of Pakistan for two time periods 2000 and 2007. The firstthis research work have assessed the poverty dynamics such as incidence of poverty, depthof poverty and severity of poverty by using income and expenditure approach in the wholearea. The same approach was also used for six Tehsils for two time periods 2000 and 2007.A statistical estimate of income inequality such as Gini Coefficient was computed in thisresearch work. Second, logit regression model was used to assess the determinants ofpoverty. In analyzing changes in the income of the poor, any analysis of poverty shouldalso be concerned with pinpointing determinants of poverty. Such an analysis has clearpolicy implications, as government officials seek to design programme that address theroot causes of poverty.Logit regression clarifies the probability of occurrence of low and high extent ofpoverty in Barani areas of Pakistan. Regression Analysis Technique employed incomputing the income accruing to farmers from BVDP. This regression model is less ormore identical to the Mincer equation. Results show that investment in development ofirrigation, social infrastructure and physical infrastructure increases agricultureproductivity and reduced poverty and inequality in the area. A negative relationship existsbetween education and poverty has been seen in the area. Education plays a significantrole in the mitigation of poverty. This is well reflected in the analysis of logit model in the area. Education of people in rural areas was found a good contributing factor in mitigatingpoverty.Findings also revealed that there is great likelihood of low incidence of ruralpoverty with the increase in land use intensity, cropping intensity, agricultural growth,Access to land and education and good number of earners in a family. On the other hand,with the rise in family size, and income inequality, there is high probability of occurrenceof high density of rural poverty in the area. It was found that agricultural productivitydirectly affects household consumption and hence overall poverty and welfare. By usingregression model it was found that age, literacy, number of earners in a family and landaccess has a positive relationship with income of the household. This implies that onelevel increase in these variables lead to increase in the total income of the individual ofagriculture sector in under consideration area While AgeSq have a negative sign indicatesthat there is negative relationship between AgeSq and Total income.Chapter1 focuses on the Role of agriculture and rural development on povertyalleviation. The context of rural back ground of Pakistan and Barani village developmentproject has been given exclusive priority in this chapter. Research objectives and questionsare also discussed in this chapter. Some of the available literature on assessment of impactof poverty in Pakistan, measurement of poverty, rural development, agricultureproductivity, empowerment of women, micro credit programmes for the poor and relatedissues have been reviewed in chapter2. In chapter3 research methodology was discussed indetail and in chapter4 all results were interpreted and discussed. Last chapter givesconclusion of research and policy recommendations for Government of Pakistan.