Base On Fuzzy Theory Risk Investment Research

Facing a great deal of uncertainty, venture capital needs a reasonable methodfor assessment and decision-making of investment projects. However, existing riskassessment methods are often used to measure system of risk indicators withdetermine the value, and Neglect the uncertainty of risk indicators; Although realoptions valuation make up for existing defects of the traditional theory and betterquantize the option value the uncertainty bring about, The assumptions of its pricingmodel are incompatible with the actual situation of investment. The developingfuzzy theories provide a powerful tool to deal with such problems. The introductionof fuzzy theory to the investment risk assessment and decision-making andresearch-related issues can very good resolve the problem about the uncertainty ofrisk indicators and pricing model parameters difficult to estimate.In this paper, fuzzy theory combine with real option theory and uncertaintytheory and modern portfolio theory, adopting statistical thinking and methods, Anin-depth study to risk assessment and decision-making of investment projects andcorporate ecological model of competition. First of all, establishing a risk indexsystem, fuzzy theory effectively combine with AHP method and simulationtechnology to evaluate the risk of the investment projects; Using fuzzy theory toimprove option pricing model of parameter estimation, establish a multi-stagecompound growth options of fuzzy real options pricing model for valuation ofinvestment projects. Second, fuzzy theory are introduced into modern portfoliomodel, establish the risk portfolio decision-making model base on fuzzy theory.Finally, fuzzy theory are introduced into the business niche and niche overlap of themodel study, set up fuzzy ecological model of enterprises competition; and putforward ecological perspective of enterprise competitive strategy。The innovation of the thesis is in the following:1. Because of the uncertainty of risk indicator in investment projects assessment,this paper use the triangular fuzzy variables to express the risk indicators and itsweights, using fuzzy theory and AHP method to establish models, and assess the investment projects through fuzzy simulation technology.2. This paper overcome the problem that model parameters can not beaccurately predicted because of lacking data information and uncertainty of riskinvestment, use trapezoidal fuzzy variable to represent investment expenditure andthe project's future expected earnings and establish fuzzy real option pricing modelof single and compound growth options. On this base, this paper derive fuzzy realoption pricing model of multi-stage growth compound options, and get the analyticalsolution of the model.3. This paper improves the traditional investment decision methods, introducefuzzy theory into risk investment portfolio models, establish risk investmentportfolio Fuzzy decision-making model...