Research On FDI Effects And Foreign Trade Structure Effects Under The RMB Exchange Rate Change

Exchange rate, as the key economic link among countries, plays an important role of price conversion in international finance and international trade, thus it becomes an important lever of BOP adjustment. This dissertation chooses effective exchange rate of RMB (REER) as the main analyzing object, using quantitative economics theory, makes research on the FDI effect and foreign trade structure effect under the RMB exchange rate change in empirical way. Finally, puts forward relevant policy suggestions to resolve the "double surpluses" structure, realize the balance of international payment and promote the balanced development of the economy.The dissertation is composed of six parts: introduction, related theories, effect analysis, conclusions and so on. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly, the dissertation introduces thebackground and meaning of the research, and then introduces the related historical documents, puts forward the research methods, and then introduces the related theory of FDI effects and foreign trade structure effects under RMB exchange rate change, including the analysis on real exchange rate of RMB, the theory of relationship between FDI and international trade, and the theory of decision on foreign trade structure. And also makes theoretical analysis on the relevance of exchange rate, FDI and foreign trade structure. RMB makes relocation of resource and makes influence on FDI inflows through its price passing-through mechanism, and then makes adjustment on industrial structure and foreign trade structure through the changes of demand structure and capital supply structure.Secondly, makes research on the investment decision of Multinational Corporation under the exchange rate change. And then makes research on the effects of FDI inflow under the RMB exchange rate change with methods of cointegration test, VAR model and shock decomposition. Reaches the following conclusion that the impact of real exchange rate change to FDI inflow is not obvious. The appreciation of RMB will not cause the decreasing inflow of FDI, as long as accelerates technological innovation, cultivates inner market and enlarges market scale. FDI inflow is an important reason that causes RMB appreciation, which is connected with the different investment structure of FDI. The pressure of RMB appreciation could be alleviated through the adjustment of FDI policy; with the appreciation of RMB, the FDI structure could be changed accordingly.Thirdly, makes research in empirical methods on foreign trade structure effects from the following five angles: export commodity structure, trade pattern structure, trade modes structure, trade regional structure and import and export country structure. Reaching the following conclusions: REER appreciation and FDI will optimize the export commodity structure; REER has no obvious impact on trade pattern structure, while FDI has significant effects on foreign trade pattern structure. FDI can positively promote the vertical intra-industry trade and has no obvious impact on horizontal intra-industry trade. REER has obviously negatively correlation with imports and exports of three areas. Different economies have obvious different investment tendency. According to the FDI sources, FDI from Japan has a substitution effect on the bilateral import and export; FDI from Singapore has a substitution effect on export and a complementary effect on import. While the United States, Germany and South Korea failed T test. Correct understanding of impact of REER to FDI sources and to import and export countries structure will be benefit to make economic policies on exchange rate and integration of investment and trade, and eliminate the confliction of exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy.Finally, reacheds the conclusions of the total dissertation, puts forward related policies and the next prospect of research.