The Rmb Exchange Rate Change On The Pearl River Delta City Of Nine Export Trade Impact Study

Export trade is an influential important part of China’s economics.as a big export province in our country, Guangdong province’s export trade develop rapidly in recent years. Exchange rate becomes the focus as an important factor of development of a country’s trade. However, the relationship between exchange rate and export trade has not been determined. For steadily increasing of export in Guangdong, it is most important to clarify the relationship between exchange rate and export trade.The paper first reviews the general theories about exchange rate and trade payment. Then, applying related quarterly export trade data of Guangdong province and yearly export trade data of nine sub-regions in pearl river delta(PRD), This paper discuss the impact of exchange rate variability to export trade by using expirical analysis. This paper made research of two problems:Firstly, whether the exchange rate variability influenced the export trade of Guangdong province dramatically:secondly, whether export structure differences influenced the relations between export trade and exchange rate. Regarding to the empirical research of the impact of exchange rate variability to export trade of Guangdong province,this paper applied PVAR model (one kind of dynamic economic model for stationary panel data) to do the research, and then applied Granger causality test、Impulse Response function and Variance Decomposition to analysis the relationships between different variables. The empirical research results showed exchange rate variability influenced export trade of Guangdong province, And the exportation in Guangdong province correspond the J curve effect.Regarding to the empirical research of the impact of export structure differences to the relations between export trade and exchange rate, this paper applied random-effect model with interaction of export trade and exchange rate to research the relation, the result showed export structure differences influenced significantly, the area with more manufacture trade will have more influence by exchange rate. Finally, this paper makes relevant policy recommendations under the results of the empirical analysis links the actual situation of PRD from government and enterprise.This feature of the paper contains three points. Firstly, the research angle is different from the existing model used in other papers,this paper had distinguished the exchange rate data from different country and considered the export structure to research the relations between exchange and export. Secondly. this paper establish municipal panel-data to research regional factor how to influence the relations of exchange and export. Thirdly, the panel data model used in this paper is more power than time series model.