Research For Market Mechanism And Fluctuation Of China Ferro-Molybdenum

Molybdenum is one of the most important strategy metals, enjoys a promising market in terms of economic globalization and market economy system. However, there are wild fluctuations of molybdenum products' prices, with the continuous and steady growth of cumulative production as well as equilibrium of supply and demand, which was detrimental to risk averse and sustainable development in molybdenum enterprises.However, theoretical and positivist analysis on price fluctuations at home and abroad focused on qualitative research method and the conclusions differed in thousands of ways, with the absence of quantity or semiquantity research. In view of these facts, the main researches in this paper are based on the econometric model and method for analysis of dynamic economic system.After retrospective analysis of molybdenum industry's development situation in recent years, this paper measures the molybdenum industry from four aspects as follows: a) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international ferro-molybdenum markets. b) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international molybdenum oxide markets and between ferro-molybdenum markets and molybdenum oxide markets. c) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in China molybdenum stock market. d) Price fluctuating and interactive relations between China molybdenum stock market and ferro-molybdenum market. The research results show that China is a large country, but far from a strong country, in molybdenum industry, for there is not equilibrium of the industry scale and influential power whether exchange rates taken into consideration or not. The effect between stock market, which started rather late in China, and actual market in molybdenum was limited, concomitant with a paradox.The deeper researches on molybdenum markets show their inefficient feature and come up with some advises on sustainable development of molybdenum industry. Under the short-term memory feature of molybdenum markets, the future price fluctuating dynamic measurement are based on Co-Integration models, ARMA models, Panel Data models and so on. A new method, PD—ARMA model, is also built, Taking both endogenous and ectogenous factors under consideration, it enhances the precision and accuracy.The research results will have not only theoretical meaning but also practical value on price fluctuating prediction when strategy formulation. However, it also will have certain reference meaning to policymaking for molybdenum industry development.