Research On Coordination Development Of Oil-gas Resources And Social Economy System In Our Country

Oil-gas resources are the sustainable development basis of a country and key factor of comprehensive national strength and security. It is a big difficult problem faced by society that how to realize coordination development between the oil-gas resources exploitation and social economy system nowadays. From the breakthrough point of petroleum industry present developing situation in our country, with the method and theory of system engineering, the paper illustrates that the coordination development problem of petroleum industry and economy in our county can be solved under the premise of forming the solid concept of sustainable coordination development. The paper constructs the research framework on the basis of the system and coordination development theory, and systematic coordinative comprehensive evaluation approaches. By defining the concept of large-scale system coordination development and probing on the connotation of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development, it put forward the thought to realize coordination development of our country and lays a crucial reseach foundation for oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development evaluation.As a largest developing country and one of the fastest increasing economy countries in the world, China has massive consumption and huge demand on petroleum resources, which inevitably brings serious threats to China economy sustainable development. Therefore, the paper has carried out systematic analysis on petroleum industry and economy development situation of our country. It has analyzed international petroleum resource circumstances started with world petroleum resource potential, prouduct capability and demand structure, and also the Chinese petroleum resource circumstances comparatively including resource potential, prouduct capability, refining and chemical capability, oil import and export capability and petroleum consumption structure. It has clarified Chinese petroleum industry situation and found out the contradiction in petroleum producing and consuming process. The correlativity between economy and petroleum consumption has been discussed in China, which has provided the data basis for the later system analysis and evaluation.The paper introduces the principles and methods of system analysis and appraisal to the research of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development. According to the common thought of system coordination analysis and appraisal, it divides the large-scale system into a multi-level system which contains 5 sub-systems including petroleum industry system, population system, economy system, technich system and environment system. It analyzes the factor, correlative relationship, founction and runnable mechanism of every sub-system in the large-scale system. With the national condition and the petroleum industry characters, it has structured the multilayer compositive evaluation index system of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development containing 5 subsystems and 82 indexes, which lays a foundation for the evaluation of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development of our country to choose.According to the multi-level appraisal index system of coordination development constructed already, the paper adopts factor analysis to appraise development degree, coordination degree and coordination development degree of oil-gas resources and social economy system in China synthetically, describes the coordination development condition of the large-scale system quantificationally, and puts forward various development patterns.It applies the theory and method of system dynamics into the simulation research of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development in our country. According to the correlative relationship of 5 sub-systems, it constructs the SD model of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development in our country, carries out validity and rationality checkout with data from 1999 to 2006, and finally simulates various development schemes brought forward by the fifth chapter of petroleum industry and economy in our country in the future, which can find out the most rational developing scheme of our country in the future. The paper carries out the beneficial exploration of oil-gas resources and social economy system coordination development in our country.