Study Of Urban Growth Of Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of The Law

With the propulsion of industrialization and urbanization, the development of Chinese city enters a broad-new fast growing stage. The urban economy play a pivotal role in China's economy and its overall contributions is increased dramatically. The radiation and deriving effect of cites in regional development, make it the key role to link urban economy and rural economy then realize the "five balances" goal for China. Although the development of Chinese city achieved a lot since the establishment of New China, there are still some problems for its development. On the one hand, what kinds of strategy should China adopt are still debating; On the other hand, the agglomeration economies and economic contribution of Chinese urban clusters are still low, radiation and driving effect of core city of urban cluster is weak are still bothering the development of Chinese cities. Identify the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese urban growth is the nexus to solve these disputes and problems. This dissertation takes the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese cities as starting point to probe the regularity of Chinese urban growth.This dissertation follows "observation-empirical test-interpretation-evaluation" study tactics to probe the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese urban growth and spatial econometrics, nonparametric econometrics are used to test this regularity empirically. From theoretical and empirical perspective, the causes and time-spatial regularity itself are investigated and the factors which influence it are tested empirically. Based on these regularities, Chinese city development policies are evaluated. Finally, this dissertation put forward some suggestions for Chinese city development that cater to these time-spatial regularities. This dissertation has eight chapters and it is divided into three parts:The first part is Introduction, Including First and Second Chapter. The reason for writing this thesis, theoretical and policy implication, summary of related research and the outline of this dissertation are embraced in the first chapter. In the second chapter, first define some important concept in this dissertation such as urban, urban system, agglomeration, spatial convergence. Then explain empirical methods that are used in this thesis in explicit way. These method including neoclassical economic growth converge theory, spatial econometrics, nonparametric econometrics, distribution dynamics, etc.The second part is the core of this dissertation. It consists of five chapters. According to its content, they are divided into three essays:The first essay, including chapter three and four, is time-spatial characteristic of Chinese urban growth. Chapter three is mainly about the city size distribution of China. After summarize the evolution of China urban system based on historical data, this chapter test whether Chinese urban system satisfy Zipf's law and Gibrat's law or not. Then find that different size of Chinese city grows in a parallel way by the means of spatial Lorenz curves and distribution dynamic method. Chinese urban economic growth distribution is analyzed in Chapter four. The analysis is based on spatial econometrics and nonparametric method. Parallel growth and spatial agglomeration are distinct characteristics of Chinese urban economic growth. Finally, spatial converge hypothesis are tested based on cross-section and spatial panel data method.The second essay probes the causes of Chinese urban time-spatial evolution characteristics. It includes chapter five and six. Chapter five is about the cause of parallel growth and size distribution of Chinese cities. Base on case study, this chapter concludes that parallel growth is universal growth phenomenon in urban growth. Using existing theoretical model, this chapter explains parallel growth in explicit way. In the following part of this chapter, what causes the size distribution of Chinese urban system is analyzed in an theoretical framework and then use the panel data method to find which factor play the pivotal role in Chinese city size distribution. The cause of economic growth agglomeration is the main content of chapter six. First, this chapter summarizes the general theory of agglomeration economics. Then analyze the mechanism of agglomeration cause growth and use the dynamic panel data method to quantify agglomeration economic growth effect. Finally, analyze the factors that lead to economic activities agglomerating by case study of Tianjin Binhai New Area manufacture industry and identify the key factors which lead to economic activities agglomerate.The final essay is policy implications, including chapter seven. Based on time-spatial evolution regularity of Chinese urban growth, this chapter review and evaluate the urban development policies of China. There are a lot of problems in Chinese urban development such as the economic contributions and agglomeration economies of urban clusters are low, economic contribution of the core city in urban clusters are still low, city size distribution of China need to improve, preferable public policies towards big cities are prominent, etc. In order to handle these problems, this dissertation put forward some suggestions which are as follows: exerting agglomeration economies base on city industry; planning the spatial layout of different size city in line with its economic function; building harmonious city network to facilitate the factor movement between cities and urban and rural area; Adjust the public policies for city development in order to allocate the public resources more efficiently; promote changing the way of urban economic growth, improve the quality of urban growth.The final part is conclusions and future research agenda for this dissertation, this part summarize the main conclusions and discuss the future research to perfect this dissertation.There are academic innovations for this dissertation in three aspects, they are as follows:1. Innovation of research perspective. This dissertation study urban growth problem based on time-spatial evolution characteristics and identifies the cause of it. This is quit different from the general urban growth researches which are focus on causal factors analysis. This thesis expands the research topic scope for urban growth problems in urban economics.2. Innovation of research methods. This dissertation adopts nonparametric estimation method and distribution dynamics method to investigate the population size and economic output distribution of Chinese urban growth. The usage of these empirical research methods deepens the understanging of urban growth regularites of China.3. Innovation of research topics. This dissertation discusses the time-spatial evolution of Chinese urban growth and unveils the time-spatial evolution regularities of urban growth in China. The analysis and brand-new opinions which were proposed in this dissertation enrich the theory of urban economics. It is also of important reference value for the policy-making of China urban development.