Study On Biofuels Development And Its Impacts

For any one country or region, it is its basic strategy to secure the energy supply to match with economic growth and ensure that people have enough food and clean environment for survival and health. Faced with the dual pressures of international energy safety and environmental degradation, as a new type of renewable energy, biomass has received unprecedented attention around the world, and biofuels development has become a guide for many countries'energy policy including China.As biofuels develop rapidly, many governments and scholars show a great concern about the possible impact of biofuels development. On the one hand, biofuels development can ease the energy crisis, reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, improve the role of agriculture in national economic development, raise farm income and promote regional economic development. On the other hand, biofuels will possibly occupy a large number of arable lands, take a lot of water resources, threaten the world food security, and promote the significant increase in world prices of agricultural products. In the whole world, the energy needs of the rich will plunder the poor's demand for food, which will bring about the problem of social equity. Therefore, how to balance the relationship among food security, energy security and environmental security is of important theoretical and practical significance.The main research contents and innovation of the dissertation are reflected in the following areas:(1) On the basis of analyzing the general trend and characteristics of global biofuels development, the dissertation focuses on an overview of bioethanol and biodisel production and use status quo in the world's major biofuels producing countries and regions such as the United States, the European Union, Brazil and China. A comparative analysis of different countries'biofuels development goals and polices is also made. In addition, the dissertation analyzes biofuels development potential of the European Union, the United States and China.(2) The dissertation constructs two framework models, one is about the relevance among oil price, biofuels market and agricultural market, the other is about the interaction between biofuels market and livestock sector. Livestock product price may rise with the rise of input costs due to the development of biofuels, it may decline with the supply increase of byproduct of corn gluten feed of biofuels production. In addition, livestock market demand reduction will make the biofuels byproduct price decline, decrease the profit of biofuels production, which will limit the expansion of biofuels industry.(3) Combined with a number of foreign scholars'empirical results, the dissertation reveals the impact law of biofuels development on agricultural markets, agricultural trade, land-use structure, economic welfare of the residents and regional economic development, as well as the energy structure and environment. On this basis, a comprehensive forecast is made on the impacts of the future biofuels development on the world.(4) Two theoretical models are constructed in the dissertation, one is on the impact of land use on agricultural products supply, and the other is on the impact of biofuels development on agricultural products demand. Base on the above two models, the impact of biofuels development on our country's food security is analyzed by using the methods of regression analysis and scenario simulation. The results show that, in the free market without government intervention, China's biofuels development will be a serious threat to our country's food security and economic welfare of the residents. Therefore, China should take a non-grain-based biofuels development path, mine the internal potential of food biofuels production and improve the output and use efficiency of under the premise of without increasing grain feedstock consumption.(5) Form the perspective of biofuel industry, the dissertation analyzes the issues of feedstock, technology and market in China's biofuel industry. In response to these issues, four countermeasures are put forward, including feedstock diversification, industry market-oriented, technology standardization, and the rational use of markets and resources at home and abroad. Finally, a hybrid vertical integration industrial organization model on biofuels is constructed, which is helpful to extend the industrial chain, increase product value, reduce production and feedstock costs, protect the environment and promote regional employment and economic growth.