Government Subside Analyse For Rapeseed As Material Of Biodiesel In Hubei Province

In 2007, China's oil consumption amounted to 346 million ton, in which imports is more than 46 percent. It is estimated that by 2010 China's total oil consumption will reach 400 million ton, while domestic production capacity of oil is only 1.6 to 170 million ton, there is a huge gap between supply and demand, hence the situation is very grim for China's oil security. The importance of biodiesel oil, as an environmentally sustainable alternative energy sources, is highlight out. The development and production of bio-diesel oil will be constrained by many factors, such as raw materials constraints, production technology constraints, product standards constraints, prices constraints, policies, etc. Because of the high cost of production of biodiesel oil, the support of government is necessary for further development. As a country with a large population, food consumption of china is very large, the central government has been under special attention on the food security that bearing on people's livelihood as a major problem. Considering the prospect of increasing grain production is limited, keeping the area of cultivation of food crops became the only way to ensure food security. In China, rapeseed is the main raw materials of producing biodiesel oil, whether the development of rapeseed as the main raw materials of biodiesel industry will affect China's grain planting area, then whether it will affect China's grain security, is worth our further researching.China's Yangtze River drainage area is the main producing areas of rapeseed, and Hubei province is truly the largest rape production and rapeseed commodity distribution center. In this paper, taking Hubei Province as an example, in order to study the combination between food policy & energy policy and the using of idle land in winter, we simulate various policies, and then we analyze the behavior of farmers about planting area of wheat and rapeseed, and the distribution of idle land in winter. In thins Paper, Trend Analysis Method is used to analyze the influencing fact of farmer planting decision and select the main influencing fact. And multiple regression analysis is used to analyze the product function of wheat and rape. The model is built to analyze wheat and rapeseed growing area competition and the wheat and rapeseed price with different energy policy. The results show that the government financial support of RMB one billion is need to make the rape cultivated area increased 100%, but the increased rape cultivated area is only 50% to 60% of the cultivated area in end of year in Hubei province. It hasn't obviously influence in wheat cultivated area. Such large numbers of government financial support is not suitable in China.