Research Of Chinese Soybean Industry Security

With the development of global economic, academics take more attention to industrial safety. This article analysis security of soybean industry in the frame of international production network. In reference of former research author tried to analysis some key factors of the soybean industry security objectively, and try to make this a truly effective and practical programs to help China combat soybean crushers to avoid sharp fluctuations in the soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal price risk. Furthmore, tried to propose a real way which works to reduce the loss of currently soybean industry efficiently.empirical method is proposed based on the new global production network security industry outlook, the elements from the resources, the international industrial competitiveness, attract foreign investment and finance industry, explained the security system in four areas to form a global production network China's industrial security threats. Empirical analysis, using the gray system model, factor analysis model, DEA data envelopment analysis and case study methods. Hope that the structure of China's industrial safety from a system of indicators and measurement model, and then built a safety index of soybean production system and risk measurement models.The empirical conclusion is:The DEA model of the 2009-2019 year soybean industry safety has shown that the soybean industry is in crisis and insecurity. The factor model results show that indicators of industrial control, industrial dependence on foreign rank top two.In other words, description of factors influencing the safety of soybean industry the most important indicators are the industry control and industrial dependence on foreign. This will be followed by two chapters of the two impact factors for a detailed view of the sub.The main innovation of this paper include the following four aspects:First, the soybean futures price spike, sharp turbulence has made the real economy from the soybean industry in the supply of security to the virtual economy where the price of the security changes have taken place. Only from the real economy demand that the supply of soybean production perspective to study the safety of Chinese soybean industry has apparently not enough, this paper presents a new framework of analysis:"Money Credit-Virtual economy-the real economy." In this framework, we can get skyrocketing soybean prices plummeting reasonable explanation:that the three polarization leads to sharp fluctuations in soybean prices. "Monetary Credit Allocation polarization" manufacturing and increase the "real polarization of income distribution", manufacture and increase the "real economy and the virtual economy and the polarization of serious departure from the" dollar standard system with a floating exchange rate system makes the amount of money flooding, these funds invest in the real economy are useless, they rushed into the virtual economy, led to global commodity prices fluctuation.Second, the current literature on the safety of China's soybean production limited to superficial analysis of the data, have no quantitative calculation of the measurement model.In Chapter 3, this article established the index system of industrial safety research.In Chapter 4, author built a special study of Chinese soybean industry security index system. The index system including four factors, they are:the industry environment, industry competitiveness, industry and the dependence on foreign control of industry rates. Further more, make use of the gray model, DEA model, trend extrapolation and other methods were evaluated on the soybean industry is forecast during the next decade China soybean industry will remain state of crisis.Third, the previous literature are basically stressed soybeans and soybean industries, product attributes, the paper stressed that the financial attributes of soybean. The raw material of soybean production and consumption is not only a necessity, and further as an investment tool, the international food provider or controlled by international speculative capital.Last but most important, the study of Chinese soybean industry when the price of security, in the "currency of credit-Virtual economy-the real economy" perspective, found that speculation gradually dominated the virtual economy. "Economic man" assumption is that when people engage in economic activities, pursue personal interests of the maximum. This article will try to make "speculative" hypothesis. The so-called "speculative" and that the people engaged in the virtual economy, when investment in pursuit of personal desire to maximize. "Economic Man" in the face when the maximum benefit will receive hands quit, keep the profit, and "speculation" and in the endless greed of human nature once again driven Shigekura transactions (which often results in taking the profit is even larger loss); "economic man" in the face of loss, out of personal interest will be considered to maximize the time stop, and "speculation" and tend to indulge in their own analysis to judge, always finds his fantasy market would move in the direction of (which often results in huge losses); "economic man", and so the "speculative" and non-rational; "economic man" is always investing in the real economy, and "speculation" and most obsessed inside the virtual economy. "speculative" often lost to a large organization "speculative" (eg hedge funds). "Speculative" and more and more involved in the real economy can be encouraged to go fewer and fewer people to create wealth. "Speculative" and the successful birth of a speculative bubble after another, creating the illusion of irrational exuberance; and their speculation fails, the world will have serious economic crisis.At last, provided a strategy for Chinese soybean crusher company:tripartite hedging of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal.In the hope of developing a hedging model, making it a programmed deal which helps Chinese Soybean Company better to complete the reasonable hedging and protect Chinese soybean industry.