The Relational Analysis Of Industry And Trade On Both Side Of Taiwan Strait Based On Complex Networks

The national economy is a complex system composed of many production and consumption departments, which interact with each others for systematic operation. The input-output relevancy of national economy and the impact of international trade had already coupling with each other. In order to analysis the character of input-output relevancy and relation of trade and industry comprehensively, scientifically and holistically, we need using systematic complex method, from holism and reductionism to expansion our study.Based on input-output analysis, using complex network theory combining the quantifying statistical and qualitative comparative analysis methods, the input-output relevancy network model, and the trade affecting model have been established. Furthermore, the import impaction on industrial production has also been study base on comparative method.The paper first reviewed the research background of the complex network and input-output relevancy, from which, we find that complex method has been used in many field, but rare on industrial relevancy. The fore passed research on relations between trade and industry mostly focused on the trading total quantity acting with total industry output. Using the data of Yangtze River Delta and Taiwan China, empirical analysis has also been carried out.For a better understanding of trade developing history between Taiwan and China mainland, this paper first hackled the Policies of economic relations and the economy developing of Cross Strait, including Yangtze River Delta. We find that economic policies of these two areas had played a very important role. From 1979, the economic policy and trade development can be divided into three stages.This research including input-output table of both Taiwan and the Yangtze River Delta,moreover, the impaction from trade. The special relation between Taiwan and China mainland gives additional difficulties in data collection. Thus, the methods of trading data have also been view as part of this paper, including using R S method to updating Taiwan's input-output table of 2004 to 2005, and using gravity model of trade for estimating the trade volume of every industry between Taiwan and Yangtze River Delta.Based on complex network theory, the input-output relevancy network model has been established. Using the input-output table of Taiwan and Yangtze River Delta, the main statistical characters show that the relation between industries of these two areas obeys power law distribution. But, the distribution of industry point itself is different due to different definition. The minority industry plays a very important role while the majorities are not. Yangtze River Delta's aggregate and industrial structures are different from Taiwan.Based on theory of row balanced relation in input-output analysis, the effects model of trade impact on industrial production had been founded. Using Leontief inverse matrix like matrix getting from the model, the effects of trade act on industrial production had been divided by multiplication and addition method, three different effects namely multiplier effect, Spillover Effect and feedback effect had also been discriminated. Multiplication method depicted the processes of those three effects, while addition method made them independent from each other. Using complex method three effects and the effects of three all has been analyzed. Result shows that, the affection distribution obeys power law distribution, minority industries played an important role, but majorities are not. The affection of trade on Yangtze River Delta is mostly embodied in multiplier Effect of import, while on Taiwan is in Spillover Effect of export.A direct outcome of trade affects on industrial production is the effect of trade working on economic growth. Based on the model of input-output relevancy and trade affect, we at last discussed the impact of trade on economy. What different from other discussion is that, the theory we using when study the affection induced by import is The Comparative Advantage Theory, thus avoided the common result that import affection is often negative. Using the Yangtze River Delta and Taiwan's2005 input-output table and trade data, the calculation result shows that, in Yangtze River Delta, import has played an important role in promoting economic aggregate, while in Taiwan the export has played an important role.