Complex Network Analysis Of Global Timber Trade

In response to climate change and development under the baekground of low-carbon economy,multi-function forest resources competing with contradictions increasingly prominent.Governments around the world have gradually begun to attach great importance to and generally pay attention to wood resources and a series of problems caused by them,the supply of timber resources has gradually evolved from general economic issues into resource strategic issues.This trend will affect the world wood(logs and lumber),changes in the pattern of international trade and its potential and profound influence in China and other countries and the development of wood industry and lumber trade security.Based on the complex networks theory,this study construct complex network model of world timber trade,selecting logs and sawn timber import and export trade data from the world 230 countries and regions in 2001-2016,calculating and analyzing features such as density,centricity,and clustering coefficients,providing a visual display of the world's timber trade pattern and its evolutionary trends.At the same time,top-level trade network methods and closed input-output methods are used to reveal the countries at core position of timber trade networks and their trade relations,exploring the impact of changes or lack of core exporting countries on the timber imports of major importing countries.The results are as follows:(1)because of the uneven distribution of resources and other reasons,the global logs and sawn timber networks are clustered.The networks take the developed countries as the center,and then gradually turn to the developed countries with rich timber resources(such as Canada and the United States)and the developing countries with large timber consumption(such as China and India).Developing countries with resource advantages are still on the "edge" of the timber trade network.(2)Log trading is showing a fragmented trend,which has promoted the development of sawn timber trade to a certain extent.(3)The top one trade networks of logs and sawn timber are separated by clusters,a small number of timber trading countries have more trade partners,and most countries have fewer trade partners;countries have obviously followed the nearest principle in the choice of logs or sawn timber first import(export)countries.The main node countries in the network tend to choose countries with similar geographical locations as the first exporter or first importer.(4)In the global timber trade network,those countries with greater influence have larger timber trade volume.Major timber exporters have a great impact on other countries,including major timber importers,and some countries in the top one networks,such as Canada,which have less trade volume and fewer nodes,are actually depended by more countries.(5)Since 2001,China,s position in the global timber trade network has been increasing,the ability to control logs and sawn timber resources has been increasing.China is gradually becoming the core country in the global timber trade network,and the security of China's timber resources is not negligible.