Research On Reliability Modeling And Simulation For Container Liner Shipping Network

Reliability analysis has been extensively applied in many systems (such as power system, water supply system, communication network etc.) as an important part of layout, design, implement. In recent years, reliability plays a key role in many transportation networks, researchers paid more attention to road network, public transportation network and railway network, but very little attention has been paid to reliability analysis of container liner shipping network. In fact, container liner shipping has changed the way that we transport goods around the world. However, there are numerous stochastic events in container ports, congestion and so on, which disrupt the function in container liner shipping network. So it is important to study reliability of container liner shipping network in competitive and uncertainty environment, which could provide method for liner operators to analyze, design and optimize their service nerworks.There are six chapters in this dissertation. The first chapter is about background, relative research review, research approach, technical route and skeleton of research content. In the second chapter, the evaluation index system for container liner shipping network is established. In the third chapter, connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network is studied. The fourth chapter is about time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network. The vulnerability of container liner shipping network is studied in the following chapter. The last chapter is conclusion and future work. The main work of this dissertation is shown as follows.The container shipping network characterizes on construction and function compared with other transportation networks (such as road network, bus network, railway network, and so on). The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network is established from the perspective of network management drew lessons from other transportation network. The evaluation index system of container liner shipping network includes connectivity reliability, time reliability, capacity reliability and vulnerability. The simulation method is given to obtain these values due to the complexity of container liner shipping network and the difficulty in gathering data.The connectivity reliability of an original destination (OD) pair under partial nodes' failures is described, and the connectivity reliability of container liner shipping network can be calculated on the average of all OD pairs'connectivity reliability. In order to improve the efficiency of the calculating reliability of container liner shipping network, reachability matrix and simulation method are introduced, and the validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method. The results show its practicality and effectiveness.Calculation models for time reliability and capacity reliability of container liner shipping network are presented based on the existing research of time reliability and capacity reliability on other transportation networks and characters of container liner shipping network. Simulation method was used to improve the efficiency of calculation. The validity of simulation result is optimized through modifying simulation times, so that the error of simulation can be controlled in needful range. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.The global liner shipping network constructed by Top 25 carriers'lines and Maersk shipping lines network have small world character and scale-free effect by analyzing statistical characters. Networks with inhomogeneous topology are very fragile to attacks. The random error of an important node is regarded as an attack for container liner shipping network. A method with deleting a node based on reachability matrix is given to evaluate the node importance. A measurement method is given to evaluate the influence for main characters, including connectivity reliability, time reliability of container liner shipping network under attacks. Finally, a liner shipping network is taken as an example to illustrate the use of the proposed method.