| Reliability is not only a fundamental property of supply chain, but also the basis of supply chain's operations and it is accompanied by the objective phenomenon of widespread uncertainty. Automotive supply chain is a more complex system composed by many players, with the cross-regional and multi-link features. These features will make automotive supply chain more vulnerable to external environment and the entities within the chain of adverse factors, resulting in supply Chain failure. In these uncertain factors, reliability is an important factor, which can ensure the successful operation of supply chain. To simplify problem studied in this paper and facilitate the research, taking three-tier supply chain centered on the vehicle manufacturer as the subject, using the interdisciplinary theory and technology including reliability engineering, systems engineering, supply chain management, industrial engineering, advanced manufacturing technology and computer technology, and so on, this paper studied some key technologies of reliability of automotive supply chain deeply, which includes the analysis of structure reliability of automotive supply chain, the study on delivery reliability of automotive supply chain, the research on failure diagnosis of key factors in automotive supply chain based on fault tree analysis , the study on diagnostic technologies of failure mode of the automotive supply chain, and the study on reliability allocation technologies of automotive supply chain. Specific contents are as follows:①The analysis of structure reliability of automotive supply chain. The analysis of structure reliability is a basic one, and it is the base of studying reliability of supply chain. After redefining the definition of reliability of supply chain, classifying reliability of supply chain and putting forward some reliability index of supply chain, the component units of the automotive supply chain was analyzed deeply, and the construction mode and reliability of unit was analyzed and improved by the use Markov theory, thus the method of calculating the reliability of automotive supply chain was determined. At the same time, the paper focused on warehouse's role in promoting systemic reliability of automotive supply chain. It quantitatively analyzed the variation of supply chain system's reliability in setting warehouse or not, the different influence on supply chain system reliability exerted by setting warehouse upstream or downstream, and the diverse effect on the whole system aroused by upstream supply chain and downstream supply chain. ②To study the system behavior of influence on delivery reliability exerted by supply chains with different modes,a new method—systems dynamics (SD) is introduced into the analysis of supply chain's behaviors. After precisely defining delivery reliability, three SD models were set up by various automotive supply chains'characteristics,then taking delivery reliability and inventories as the object, the simulation of them was run under the circumstances of the same parameters, disturbances of market demand and operational policies shift, respectively,and we obtained some inherent operational mechanisms of delivery reliability of automotive supply chain with various operational modes.③Study on failure diagnosis of key factors in automotive supply chain. After the reason why automotive supply chain fails was analyzed, borrowing ideas from fault diagnosis method of machinery parts to embody the abstract problem in supply chain, the diagnosis technology of key factors in automotive supply chain including the diagnosis technology of independent failure and the diagnosis technology of common cause failure were studied on with the theory of fault tree analysis. The study on the diagnosis technology of independent failure in automotive supply chain is mainly by the simulation of Monte Karlo Method. After constructing the general model of diagnosing key factors in automotive supply chain,its simulation algorithm was presented to count its interrelated reliability indexes and diagnose crucial factors. Simulation example was presented to prove the method's feasibility and validity. At the same time, we studied the diagnosis technology of common cause failure in automotive supply chain, which includes the forms of common cause failure between suppliers, between suppliers and manufactures, between manufactures and distributors, between distributors, and between suppliers and manufactures, distributors. Then we established their fault diagnosis model, studied its simulation algorithm and application examples.④Study on diagnosis of reliability failure mode of automotive supply chain. To study the accurate calculations and fault mode diagnosis of supply chain, the new idea that GO methodology is applied in reliability analysis of supply chain system is brought forward. Through analyzing detailedly every important factor leading to success of supply chain system and taking three-tier supply chain as the object,GO model of reliability analysis of supply chain is found, which is universal. It can not only caculate reliability of supply chain system in detail,but also diagnose its fault mode and caculate its importance,which provides the way for improving and optimizing supply chain system. ⑤Study on the technologies and methods of reliability allocation of automotive supply chain. Learning the method used in reliability allocation of machine parts and according to the laws of reliability cost function in reliability engineering, the reliability estimated cost function of automotive supply chain was constructed. At the same time, according to the structure feature of automotive supply chain and the conclusions of previous research,the method of determining parameter values of the reliability estimated cost function of automotive supply chain were given,and the reliability allocation model of automotive supply chain was established. According to the differential nature between reliability and cost in automotive supply chain, the step by step iterative algorithm, taking the factor with the greatest importance as the search direction,was built. Relative to previous algorithm studied in the literature, the algorithm presented in the paper is simpler, easy to use.
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