Study On Growth Mechanism Of National Innovative Capacity

Into the era of knowledge-based economy, innovation is the core power of economic growth, and state is the important organize form of innovative activity. Innovation competition among the country of the world and implementation of China's strategy of indigenous-oriented innovation create real demand for the study on the growth of national innovative capacity(NIC), the study on national innovation system (NIS) and endogenous growth theory provide the theory and technology support for the study on the growth of NIC. Based on the existing research, this study attempts to establish the analysis model to reveal the growth mechanism of NIC, analysis the paths patterns and evolution of the growth of NIC, and to provide the recommendations for the growth of China's innovative capacity.Firstly, this dissertation expands the assumptions of human capital in the model of Chen and Kee, establishes the internal effect model of the growth of NIC, make a connection between the human capital accumulation and the education capital investment, then develop a new steady-state solution, which has improved the conclusion that the steady-state level of the growth of NIC depends on the exogenous variables, and reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC.The results show that, NIC largely depends on the increase in average years of schooling of the labor force and the conversion coefficient measuring the transformation from labor force into human capital via education, rather than the growth rate of human capital given by exogenesis.Secondly, based on the analysis of internal effect mechanism, this dissertation imports the Wamae model of external factor effect. This dissertation improve the key assumption of Wamae model using the innovation investment substituting researchers to reflect learning ability, and establishes the external effect model of the growth of NIC. Then it processes the dynamic simulation of the model using the Mathematics 4, reveals the internal growth mechanism of NIC. The results show that:the innovation gap of between the southern and northern country is not only connected with the initial conditions of innovation gap and learning ability, but also connected with national innovation investment policy, knowledge spillover level etc.Thirdly, according to the deduction of mechanism study,this dissertation analyzes the paths pattern and evolution of the growth of NIC, base on the patent indicator, using the methods of nuclear density function, Markov chain, information entropy and econometrics.The results show that, there are three patterns in growth of NIC, namely, continuous path, great-leap-forward path, and hover-forward path; the distuibution of the number of the countries in different development stages presents the trend to transform from "pyramid" structure to "inverted pyramid" structure; there are scale obstacle, the difference of path and threshold effect in the growth of NIC; the flow probability between the growth stages of NIC is lower, moreover, there are the significant "path dependence" in the low growth stage while significant "Matthew effect" in the high growth stage.Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical research, and National Science and Technology Plan to the main line, this dissertation inspects Chinese innovation policy from a historical perspective. The results show that, the innovation strategy experienced the alternative conversion between the external and internal effect since the founding of P.R. China, and keeping the internal and external equilibriums has become the key to implement the strategy of indigenous innovation. Drawing on the experience of other development countries such as British, the United States and Japan, this dissertation puts forward the recommendations, such as transforming innovation functions of the central government, establishing policy system with internal and external equilibriums and a unified innovation policy agenda.