| Nowadays the competition in the world is changing from the economy, politics and national defense and so on to the field of science and technology that can strengthen national core competency. As one of the main innovation activity of science and technology, the R& D activity has already been the important index that measures the scale of a national science and technology and evaluates national innovation ability. The R&D input can push technique innovation and progress and promote the economy growth and transformation. The total and the intensity of our country's R&D input are more and more increasing since the reformation and opening, and these lay important foundation for the development of society and economy.With the limited science and technology and economic resources, Researching on the performance evaluation of our country's R&D input is important to improve science and technology resources allocation, to strengthen the R& D budget management and raise R& D activity efficiency. The government can guide and control R&D activity effectively. The forecast to the total of R&D input and the target intensity is the basis of laying down science and technology developing plan.On the basis of international experience and the strategy of building innovation nation, the paper analyses the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth, evaluate the performance of R&D input and forecasts the target intensity in R&D input with the way of co-integration, SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis) and MGM(l,n).The paper is consisted of four part mainly. First, the paper analyses a lot of literature about R&D input, and summarizes the law of science and technology policy; second, in order to evaluate the performance of R&D input totally and accurately, the multi- spillovers of R&D input are considered in the paper; third, the paper examines the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth about thirty years by co-integration, and estimates the efficiency of R&D input in nation wild from 2002 to 2008 in SFA; Fourth, the total and the intensity of R&D input 10 years later are forecasted scientific through the model of MGM(l,n).The some countermeasures are put forward to improve the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity in the future.The research contributes to literatures as following: First, this research enrichs and develops the R&D endogenous growth model that using Neo～Sebum Petertan model in consideration of the factor of government's policy and human captical.Second, this research tests the multi-spillovers that is influenced by spatial factors, knowledge field and the acceptance of knowledge in R&D activity. Empirical study shows that the external knowledge total of enterprise and government's R&D input produce notable advanced action to new product's gross sales and patent's applying gross.Third, empirical study shows that the economic growth deponds on much R&D input mainly, but the effectiveness of human capital is not obvious.The efficiency of R&D input is more and more raising in our country, but the pure technique efficiency level is not high.The space for raising the efficiency of R&D input is much more in future.Fourth, this research forecasts and calculates the total of R&D input and the target intensity until 2020 by MGM (1, n) on base of international experience in R&D activities and the strategy of building innovation nation.The paper puts forward the countmeasures to raise the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity.
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