Research On Lead-Zinc Market Laws Based On Chaotic Theory And Alarm Of Sustainable Development

With the economical development, it is inevitable that output and consumption of lead-zinc industry in China increase in high speed at present. We can anticipate that consumption of lead-zinc will still increase at great speed, and the contradiction thar output is less than consumption will expand. It is necessary at present in China that the laws and new positions of lead-zinc market to be researched, the degrees of sustainable development of lead-zinc industry to be evaluated, and an alarm system of sustainable development of lead-zinc industry to be established. The main contents of this paper are included as follows.Lead-zinc resources and market in overseas and homeland are researched in detail, such as, lead-zinc resource reserves are found out, the guarantee years of lead-zinc resource are estimated, and the trend of LME(London Metal Exchange) lead-zinc metal price are analyzed. The worldwide conditions of lead-zinc reproduction are researched, the gaps between domestic and overseas lead-zinc industry are obtained. Comparing the throughput of lead-zinc smelt, the capacities of mining and mill run with the supply of lead-zinc raw material, the existent problems of lead-zinc industry are discussed in detail.The laws of lead-zinc market are researched based on chaotic theory. The results show that price evolvement of lead-zinc metal, output increasing or decreasing, consumption change have the character of similar period and occur chaotic phenomena. We obtained the laws and characters in lead-zinc market as follows:the similar period and changing range of price in lead market are less than that of in zinc market, and transforming processes in zinc market are more complex than that of in lead market.The lead-zinc prices in LME market are forecasted with a chaotic neural network model, and the forecasting models of lead-zinc output and consumption are established respectively based on grey-chaos theory. The research results show that lead-zinc prices will drop in the near future, the phenomena that output of lead-zinc metal are less than consumption in the world will occur in the future, and the condition will be more and more serious. In China, lead metal will be surplus in the future, and the condition will be more and more serious, but the equilibrium of zinc metal between output and consumption will in existence.Lead-zinc output, yield in mine and reproducing lead-zinc metal in China are forecasted, and the researching results shows that lead resources will lack severely, although the extent of short in zinc resources will be better than that of in lead resources, but the phenomena of short in resources will be in existence chronically.Thirteen factors influencing the sustainable development of lead-zinc industry in our country are researched, and their SDI (sustainable development index) are analyzed and forecasted with the theory of fuzzy mathematics from 1990 to 2006. The researching results show that the SDI was very low before 1999, and became better and better from 1999 to 2006. Because of declining in the guarantee extents of lead resource, depending on oversea resources and expanding the smelt capacity unduly, the degrees of sustainable development in lead mine will be down after 2006, and its foreground is not very optimistic. Analyzing generally, the SDI of zinc industry is better than that of lead industry. An alarm system of sustainable development in lead-zinc mine is established. The system can not only compare prevenient SDI with present one, but also predicate the SDI in the future. It is very important to sustainable development of lead-zinc mine in our country. According to lead-zinc resource reserves and yield data in Yunnan Chihong stock corp., its alarm system of sustainable development that can evaluate programming of lead-zinc enterprise is put forward.According to the researching and predicting results, by analyzing the problems of lead-zinc mine in our country, a series of suggestions and measurements for sustainable development of lead-zinc industry are put up.