| Finance is the material basis of the government to perform its functions, is an important guarantee for national security and social stability and to ensure the protection of national capacity for sustainable development. Fiscal policy is an important tool for the state's macro regulation and control. The use of fiscal policy plays an important role in optimizing resource allocation, regulating income distribution, promoting the steady growth of national economy and regional economic coordinated operation and promoting the comprehensive development of various social undertakings. For a long time, it is generally thought that the finance relying on the country's political rights is not risky. However, in terms of the world, or from the practice of China's point of view, the fiscal risks are objective realities.In the 1990', fiscal and fiscal risks had been paid attention to particularly after the Mexican fiscal crisis occurred in succession of the Asian fiscal crisis. How to prevent fiscal risks and maintain fiscal stability and sustainability has become a worldwide study. The proposal of "Common Solutions of the fiscal problems" declared that the fiscal risks had become critical areas of modern finance. How to clear the causes of a variety of fiscal risks and results, and effectively prevent and resolve these risks have become a major problem that the Government facing. Countries in the world are concerned about the fiscal risks, the United States and other countries has taken a substantial step in a bid to the legal framework to prevent the accumulation of fiscal risks and the outbreak.China in recent years has increasingly in-depth studied on the fiscal risks. Fiscal risks have long been the academia and the hot topics of the real sector. Literature on this area is pretty much, a consensus has been achieved in many areas. However, the theoretical study of the fiscal risks are still lagging compared to the practice requirements. As a complex field of study and research subjects, there are still many issues remained unresolved. Study abroad is also fragmented, with no mature theoretical system, and no sophisticated risk assessment methods and management methods. The framework of the building to prevent fiscal risks are still ambiguous state, this paper attempts to make some ground-breaking research.China positive fiscal policy is expansionary macro-fiscal policy implemented by the government as a counter-cyclical macro-adjustment method, its macro-control goal is to reverse the lack of effective demand and the low situation of the economy and economic growth. As the Government's fiscal strength is limited, the main source of huge fiscal investment is to increase the issuance of treasury bonds, and constantly expand the size of the deficit. In the condition of the fiscal revenue is limited, the fiscal expenditure pressures continue to increase, the debt accumulated rapidly and more difficult to repay, the fiscal risks will be emerged. This article attempts to analysis on the Government's revenue risks, expenditure risks, government bonds and other aspects of riskss and construct an initial fiscal risks early warning system and analysis in-depth on how to prevent and defuse fiscal risks with a view to improving the theoretical system of fiscal risks and fiscal risks forecasting.It is a global issue of fiscal risks, but also a long-term nature of the subject, closely connected with the complicated economic situation. With the changes of the fiscal policy and the reform and development of the economic, in countries of the theory and practice of fiscal risks are constantly in-depth study, however, the results of these studies are more theoretical studies and be less feasible. Research on the fiscal risk at home and abroad is very large, but most of all are qualitative analysis. Whether from the development of economics itself, or from the current situation of international research on the fiscal risks, the forecast and the forecast effect of the test is very necessary and urgent. It is necessary to be a lot of quantitative analysis with a view to the analysis for decision-making in the future to provide some qualitative and quantitative decision support.In this paper, fiscal risks are conducted in-depth theoretical analysis and empirical research based on the research exting, focusing on integrating theory with practice. A variety of research methods are used that the combination is historical research and realistic analysis, vertical and horizontal comparison study, and qualitative analysis and quantitative research. Full-text is divided into seven chapters, specifically the following structure:Chapter 1, Introductions. It includes the background and significance of the papers, the object, structure, research methods and innovative point of the paper.Chapter 2, The Fiscal Risks Theory and The Theory of Aactive Fiscal Policy Review. From risk theory, this chapter systematically expounds the theoretical basis for the fiscal risks, including the definition, characteristics, affecting factors and the formation reasons of fiscal risks, manifestations and other concepts, introduces the "fiscal risks matrix", and the harm of the fiscal risks. In addition, a brief review of the implementation of active fiscal policy, the historical background, as well as on the positive economic effects of fiscal policy are conducted a theoretical analysis. It mainly analyzes the budget deficit, interest rates and crowding-out effect of the role of the channel. The article also has a brief review on the study of the fiscal risks of domestic and foreign scholars. A theoretical basis and analytical framework are provided for us to study the fiscal risks on the proactive fiscal policy.Chapter 3, Research on tax risk of the pro-active fiscal policy, First of all, through the use of Granger causality test, linear regression method to analyze the general characteristics of China's tax revenue, the relationship between tax growth and economic growth, the effect of China's macro tax burden on economic growth, etc. From the empirical test results, in our country, the level of relation between the tax growth and economic growth is low, and it will bring long-term adverse effects objectivity on the government budget balance, debt capacity and solvency of macroeconomic regulation and control. The relation between China's macro tax burden and the GDP growth rate is adverse. The tax burden for each additional one percentage point, GDP growth rate will come down 0.016 percentage points. It decrypted that in recent years, China's macro tax burden to a certain extent, had a negative impact on economic growth. China's tax revenue elasticity was always greater than 1 after 1997, it even reached 2.5 in 1999,It indicates that tax increases are actually in the implementation of China's active fiscal policy, partially offset the expansion of the active fiscal policy, and increase tax risks. Secondly, the article analyzes the reasons causing the tax risks by using the game models from the view of tax loss. It is only to increase penalties, increase tax revenue audit efforts that the loss of tax revenue and guard against the risks of tax revenue can be effectively prevented. Finally, the use of VAR models, impulse response functions, variance decomposition and other methods of tax risks indicators were first tested.Chapter 4, Research on Expenditure Risks on Active Fiscal Policy. First it analyzes the general characteristics of China's fiscal expenditure and structure. China's fiscal expenditure structure changes in the overall process of economic development trends, but the structure of fiscal expenditure are still irrational.⑴It is still a larger share of capital expenditure, the production and construction-based fiscal traces still evident.⑵There is a big funding gap on education, scientific research, culture, health, radio and television, social welfare, social security and other public utilities and social services.⑶The proportions of the China's administrative expenses continue to increase. It notes that the administrative staff at all levels is excessive, institutions are expanding, and streamlining the organization effectiveness is not obvious.⑷There are still extra-budgetary expenditure issues. The activities of financial expenditure, in addition to issues related to the total expenditure, expenditure structure, also including expenditure management issues. If the government does the three things wrong, there is the direct result in varying degrees of risk of financial expenditure. This paper analyzes two main reasons that impact China's fiscal expenditure management issues to further analysis the reasons for the risk of financial expenditure. First of there is a big X-inefficiency in our government, two of China's government investment on private investment has a crowding-out effect. Through the use of DEA models, our government's X-efficiency is studied. Before and after the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy, our government's X-efficiency increased by nearly 10 times. The reducing administrative operational efficiency constitutes the risk of fiscal expenditure risks. Through the co-integration test and error correction model (EMC), we study the impact of the Chinese Government investment on private investment. It indicates that in the long-term or short-term crowding-out effect both exists; and finally, risky indicators of expenditures are first test. Chapter 5, Analysis of the national debt risks on Active fiscal policy. First, we analysis China's active fiscal policy of the national debt policy and use the linear regression analysis to test the Ricardian equivalence theorem application in China and come to a conclusion that Ricardian equivalence theorem does not be applicable in our country; secondly, through the national debt risk-theoretical analysis of the fiscal burden of debt analysis, debt analysis, several aspects of crowding-out effect on the risk of the causes of our national debt were introduced. Finally, the debt risk indicators were tested, and China's tax cuts and debt policies in recent years were compared using dynamic linear regression method. Using the statistics data from 1980 to 2006, we studied the dynamic impact among the gross domestic product, tax, infrastructure investment and consumption. From the parameter estimation results, in the implementation of active fiscal policy in our country, to expand domestic demand remaine the most sensitive factor, while increased investment in capital construction investment is also an important factor in promoting economic growth. Taking into account our country's actual economic situation, issuing treasury bonds is better than the policy of tax cutsChapter 6, Research on the fiscal risks early warning systems and the sustainability of the active fiscal policy. First, to use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, we analysis the various sub-weight that impact of the fiscal risks. It carried out that the weight of direct explicit risks, contingent dominant risks, direct hidden risks and contingent hidden risks respectively are (0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1). On this basis, a comprehensive index of China fiscal risks is built; secondly, using logit method, the fiscal risk early warning system in China is built , and the fiscal risks conditions are predicted in 2007 - 2010. In addition, we forecaste the sustainability of China's active fiscal policy in use of ARMA model,. This is the major innovations part of this article. Whether through summary indicator of fiscal risk early warning systems, or from the Logit model of empirical analysis, it can be seen that, the risks of fiscal system have always been at the orange area, a low-risk operation status since the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy from 2000 to 2003. Through the forecasting results of fiscal risk early warning model, we can see that the fiscal system of our country are still at risk area as in the orange low-risk areas, in the stage of relatively stable in the coming period of time.Chapter 7, the policy recommendations. In this chapter, we introduce the experience of other countries in the fiscal risks management, and put forward constructive comments on how to strengthen the prevention and control of the fiscal risks of China.
|
PDF Full Text Request