Study About Risk Forming Mechanism And Order Fulfillment Optimization Model Of Supply Chain With Manufacturers As The Core

Supply chain risk forming mechanism and the supply chain decision-making model are two of the leading edges which attract the concern of academics at home and abroad. In absorbing the domestic and foreign research results in this foundation, on the basis of the theory of supply chain management, risk management theory and the system theory as guides, this paper discusses the sources of supply chain risk with the manufacturers as the core and reveals the supply chain risk forming mechanism; It have analyzed effects of the multifactor on the transportation links to the supply chain operational costs, and established the two stage cost optimization model and the non-linear cost optimization model of supply chain based on multifactor' influences of transportation links separately; It has provided the general optimization model of the Supply chain with considering risk losses. Further, considering the influence of transports link multifactor, time competition idea and time risks, it has set up the comprehensive optimization model with manufacturers as the core. On the basis of this comprehensive optimization model, some new results have been obtained. The main research contents are as follows:1. The thesis has analyzed the characteristics of objectivity and certainty, globalization and system, dynamics and complexity, level and pluralism, transitivity and bullwhip effect, Variety that the result of supply chain risks appears. It has pointed out that the risk characteristics of the supply chain and the risk characteristics of general enterprises or the organization are different in a lot of respects clearly.2. The thesis has pointed out that the technological complexity, organized complexity and environmental complexity of the supply chain have caused the complexity of the supply chain. But the ability that people Understand and hold the complexity has limitation, the result of these two respects function causes the uncertainty in many aspects of the supply chain. And these enterprises in the supply chain in enterprise's one's own goal, individual interests, business plan, corporate culture, power position and information of possession have obvious difference nature, often the conflict, incongruous and uncooperative in these enterprises each other are caused in the supply chain. 3. The thesis has Revealed that "supply chain's own complexity", "complexity of supply chain environment", "supply chain member's many differences" and "the difficulties which people knows and grasps these complexity and the limitation people how to coordinate these differences" are the roots producing the supply chain risks. However, supply chain's uncertainty is only the immediate causes which the supply chain risks form, which have offered a brand-new thinking for the discussion which the supply chain risk origin. It has pointed out supply chain's complexity and the insufficiency which people knows and grasps these complexity result in supply chain's much uncertainty, then has brought the risks for the supply chain; At the same time, the difference of the supply chain members between a great deal of respects causes mutual conflict and lack of coordination, lack of cooperation, and then cause the supply chain risk., and the formation mechanism of supply chain risk model is given.4. It has pointed out that supply chain risks with the manufacturer as the core can not only take on as the quality risk, the time risk and the cost risk, but may also display as the supplies risk, the manufacture risk, the transportation risk, the sales risk and so on many kinds of types; But the risk factors usually can be divided into external risk factors and the internal risk factors, and external risk factors can distinguish between 7 major categories, the internal risk factors can be divided into 3 categories 12 subcategories, and has carried on the comparative analysis to the approximately 70 concrete supply chain risk factor's influence.5. It have analyzed in detail that the transportation and delivering of the supply chain impact on the supply chain operation. It has explicitly pointed out for the first time the influences of transport operators, the transport modes, transport routes, the outset and the termination, the cargo type, the carrier vehicle and transportation quantity to supply chain expense, and impact on the supply chain operation cost. The cost impact of these factors are the first time included in supply chain cost of transport links to consider the supply chain optimization, establishing the two stage cost optimized models and non-linear cost optimized models of the supply chain with manufacturers as the core separately, which better reflected the combined effects of transportation links.6. On the basis of the deficiency considering the risk losses of the supply chain in the supply chain optimizing, it has provided the general optimization model of the supply chain with manufacturers as the core, and integrated the risk losses of the supply chain in the optimizing model. Based on manufacturers Adopting MTO management tactics, it has analyzed in detail the expenses and time that different links of the supply chain with manufacturers as the core are consumed and lost with the time risk, and considered the supply chain with risk losses generally optimizing models to specify. Comprehensive integrating the Function of the transportation and delivering of the supply chain, time competition idea and time risk, it has set up the two stages optimize model of the supply chain synthetically. This model can reflect better the objective reality environment in the supply chain optimizes decision, the result received is more objective too, science.7. Based on the established supply chain's synthesis optimization model with manufacturer as the core, it has given for the first time the manufacturers'optimal distribution strategy, product delivery strategy tables for manufacturers to choose, manufacturers products distribution of the optimal use of vehicles method, as well as the condition which must satisfy most superior transporters and the transportation pattern, and proved that the shipment of the entire sequence of the supply chain had no effect on total operating costs.8. Aiming at supplies chain's different optimized models with manufacturer as the core; it has separately discussed the model solution method, and has given the application demonstration. On the basis of the comprehensive optimization model of the supply chain with manufacturers as the core, it provide the optimum decision table of manufacturer's products deliver for the first time. Through the use of this table, decision-maker can avoid complicated model operation, and rely on the optimum decision table to determine the optimum policy of the products transport directly. It has improved the speed of decision, and made the optimizing decision of products deliver simpler and easier. It has explained the table application with examples, and from contrasting reveals the choice of decision-making table can greatly improve efficiency.9. Finally, the main conclusion and innovation to this paper have been clicked and summarized, it has proposed the research direction in the future.The content and results of these studies have provided a new way of thinking and method to supply chain risk management and optimize decision-making to supply chain with manufacturers as the core, and done great theoretical reference and practical guide to the future supply chain risk management and supply chain rapid response decision-making research.