Study On Manufacturers' Procurement Strategy And Its Simulation Under Supply Disruption Risk In Supply Chain Network

With the globalization of economics, specialization of labor and globalization of distribution of nodes in supply chain of, the supply chain has extended in the dimensionality of both time and space. At the same time, because of many uncertain factors within and out supply chain, coupled with frequent natural disasters and other emergencies, supply chain becomes weaker and weaker, and the probability of supply chain risk is also getting higher and higher. Supply disruption is one of the risks of supply chain,a large number of cases tells us that once the supply disruption events occur, there will be some extraordinarily serious results, such as the shut-down of downstream enterprises due to the lack of production resource, or the gap and even disjoint between the upstream and downstream enterprises. All these may bring huge economic losses to the enterprises and the supply chain.Therefore, this paper takes the four-level supply chain network as the research object. In addition, from the perspective of the entire supply chain operating costs, this paper researchesmanufacturers' procurement strategy under the supply disruption risk.More specifically, firstly, according to the basic cost structure of supply chain and related literature, the time variable is introduced into the cost optimization model of dynamic supply chain network to meet the minimum customers' satisfaction. Secondly, on the basis of cost model of dynamic supply chain, this paper introduces the supply interruption probability and the interruption duration into a new model of procurement strategy. Finally, according to the specific business case, the simulation model of four-level supply chain is established using the Arena software. Eventually, the paper solves the target inventory of each regular orders node of the cost optimization model of dynamic supply chain. What's more, for the manufacturer's purchasing decision model underthe supply disruption risk, this paper solves the procurement strategy of manufacturer K, and on the basis of the model results,the critical value of the probability of supply disruptions is discussed.