Tourism CGE System Development And Application

CGE analysis has already become the useful method in tourism research, which is helpful in the definition of the influencing factor and the influential role of tourism. But, the CGE analysis which has the suitable achievement and the experience in other research area is seldom used in the tourism research of domestic, so this dissertation chooses the CGE analysis to discuss the China tourism economic impact from several aspect, the full text is organized in six chapters.The first chapter elaborates the three basic questions of tourism economic impact, reviews the tourism CGE analysis development, as well as the domestic tourism economic impact analysis, then establishes the research aims and the content structure.The second chapter has summarized the general equilibrium theory development, as well as general equilibrium analysis tools:The IO analysis and SAM, and introduced the CGE model in international and the domestic research filed. Based on the basic structure, the closure theory, and the solution technology of the CGE model, China tourism CGE model has designed and includes tourism expense equation. In order to solve the model we made the equations of the model linear.The third chapter establish IO table and SAM, also provides the original statistical data, the establishment and the balancing method, and the code for balancing. In addition, has launched the IO analysis based on the China tourism IO table, carried on the regression estimate the tourism expense parameter with panel data model, and analyzed the tourism demand according to the different income level. Parameter and variable are the basic elements of the model, which estimated with the methods of econometrics and calibration.The fourth chapter analysis the demand of the China tourism CGE system user, then designs the system structure, Graphical User Interface, as well as the functional module. The system developed by the object-oriented programming technology and the Windows Forms technology, using Visual C++program language in Visual Studio, and coding the Gauss Elimination as the algorithm solution. The fifth chapter sets the simulation scenes according to the research aim and uses the CTCGE system to make the results. The results indicated that the government could promote expends of the urban and the rural residents by reducing personal income tax or increasing transfer payment, as well as promote expends travel and tour expends, and the government should reduce tax rate of the rural resident or increase the proportion of transfer payment to the rural resident. The growth of the international foreign exchange earnings from tourism could help the optimization of the economic structure through the influence on the primary product, the middle demand, the product price and so on. The influence on economic growth from the domestic tourism development is various and complexity. Although inbound tourism, domestic tourism has different influence on the urban resident and urban resident, such as on employment, income and expense, the tourism development is helpful in reducing disparity between the urban and urban resident, playing the positive role for the eliminating poverty. The 2008 global financial crisis which has negative influences to the economy increases the income of urban resident somehow.The sixth chapter carries on the summary to the full text, and offers the ameliorator of the thesis.