The Study On Investment Decision-making Of The Petroleum Exploration Project In China

With the scare exploration funds and increasing difficulty of exploration, the oil-gas exploration investment decision-making should be studied, so as to use the limited exploration funds effectively and increase the exploration investment benefit. The author's main research work and achievements are summarized as follows:(1) Study on the oil-gas exploration and development investment optimization. The scale of exploration investment and proportion of exploration and development investment directly influence the overall effect of exploration investment, which has been studied quantificationally by very few experts for a long time. The idea of this paper is summarized as follows: Firstly,to summarize the law of exploration and development, to forecast the parameters of tons of recoverable reserves investment and unit capacity investment, etc. according to the data of exploration and development of oil companies over the years. Secondly,to estimate the recoverable reserves that may be found in exploration investment in a year. Thirdly,to estimate the development investment,exploitation cost and related taxes for the recoverable reserves. Finally,to construct the optimization model of exploration and development investment, to estimate the appropriate oilfield exploration, development investment and investment ratio to provide reference for decision makers.(2)Study on multi-attribute evaluation of oil-gas exploration project, which includes the following aspects of work:â‘ To ensure that the evaluation object is the whole process of exploration and development.â‘¡To perfect the existing evaluation index system existing,form a set of evaluation index system which can reflect difference among projects and easy to operate.â‘¢To introduce the multi-attribute decision making in economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration project, because the indicators reflect different aspects of oil and gas exploration project characteristics. (3) Study on the portfolio optimization of oil-gas exploration project. The main characteristic of oil-gas exploration project is high-risk and high-profit. The objective of portfolio optimization is the balance of risks and profits,so the measurement indicators of risks and profits should be determined firstly. The comprehensive evaluation value can comprehensively reflect the sort of each project's risks and benefits,but the comprehensive evaluation value has no real significance. It can be integrated as one of the project portfolio objectives, but not as the only objective. The net annual value is selected to measure the profits, the variance of the net annual value is selected to measure the risks and the comprehensive evaluation value is selected to measure the comprehensive evaluation results. Portfolio income is the summation of the net annual value of the selected projects. The portfolio variance can be calculated with Sharpe's single-index model. The comprehensive evaluation value of the project portfolio is the summation of comprehensive evaluation value of the selected projects. Finally, the oil and gas exploration project portfolio multi-objective mixed programming model is established, which is solved with genetic algorithm.