Research On The Portfolio Of Oil-gas Exploration Projects

Since the birth of modern portfolio theory it has been widely valued and used in economic field. But it is often used in the stock investment field and the application in actual industries is fewer .Oil-gas exploration project is an industry which has the traits of high risk, the large investment and high profit. In this paper we apply the portfolio theory into oil-gas exploration projects to reduce risk and increase income.The geography and geological conditions of exploration are becoming more and more complicated. With the limit of exploration investment, it's key to select optimal portfolio for oil-gas companies'sustainable development. Former study mainly took economic value into consideration and focused on the third stage: reservoir evaluation stage. Without the integrated planning, they failed to distribute the capital among the three exploration stages. Besides former study rarely considered the geologic risk which is a very important oil-gas exploration risk. Eventually the system of evaluation has simplex indexes. Of course they can't reflect oil-gas exploration projects faithfully.So the main study work in this paper is as follows:(1) Basic introduction of oil-gas exploration project and portfolio theory. In the paper, we firstly summarize the basic concepts of oil-gas exploration project and portfolio theory.(2) Economic evaluation and risk analysis of oil-gas exploration project. Based on the introduction of economic evaluation and risk analysis, we take different exploration stages and factors hard to measure into oil-gas exploration portfolio evaluation indicator system.(3) Portfolio optimization research of oil-gas exploration project. With the limits of capital and reserves, we build the selection model of oil-gas exploration portfolio. Then we discuss the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach. The two approaches are applied to the evaluation system. By this we calculate the evaluation value. So we know the difference of different portfolios. We hope this paper can help the oil-gas companies recognize risk and value of different stages optimizing the allocation of resources.