Research On The Measurement And Response Strategies Of The Impact Of Climate Change On My Country's Grain Productio

The food security problem in our country’s economic and social development and stability has immeasurable meaning.General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly points out in the report of 20 th CPC National Congress that the foundation of food security should be consolidated thoroughly,and the Party and government’s shared responsibility for food security should be fully implemented.As we all know,China is a major food producer and consumer in the world.In recent years,the frequent occurrence of natural agricultural disasters and the emergence and spread of epidemic diseases have affected food production,which is unfavorable to food production.With a vast territory,China is divided into Northeast,North China,Central China,South China,East China,Northwest China and Southwest China from north to south and east to west,respectively.However,climate change,especially the same kind of natural disaster,has a significant difference in the degree of damage to different parts of the country.In order to ensure people’s basic living needs,ensure food price stability,ensure adequate food supply,and realize sustainable agricultural development,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the impact of climate change on food production.This thesis combines seven regions of China into three regions: North China and Northeast China,Southwest China and Northwest China,Central China and East China and South China.Based on the data of grain production and climate change in each region from1980 to 2020,the distribution law of climate change and grain production in these three regions is analyzed.Grey correlation analysis model was used to estimate the correlation degree between climate change and various food crops.At the same time,a C-D production function model was established by selecting the conversion amount of fertilizer application,the total power of agricultural machinery,the grain sown area,the number of agricultural labor force,the effective irrigated area and the area affected by various disasters,and the main factors affecting the grain yield in each region were determined by the method of gradual linear regression.The results showed that the main factors affecting grain production in North China and Northeast China were the affected area of drought,the sown area of grain and the conversion amount of chemical fertilizer application.Drought had a great negative impact on grain production.From the absolute contribution rate,the extent of grain production reduction caused by drought exceeded the extent of the increase of about one-fifth of grain production caused by the application of chemical fertilizer.The most important factors affecting grain output in southwest and northwest China are the total power of agricultural machinery,the conversion amount of fertilizer application,the labor force,and the drought-affected area.Among them,the drought has a great negative impact on grain production.From the absolute contribution rate,the extent of grain production reduction caused by the drought has exceeded the extent of the total power of agricultural machinery to increase grain output by about a quarter.The main factors affecting grain yield in central China,East China and South China are the conversion amount of fertilizer application and the effective irrigated area.According to the results,compared with other input factors,climate change has no significant effect on grain yield in central,East and South China.According to the results of the empirical study,drought has a great impact on the grain production in North China,Northeast China,Southwest China and Northwest China,so it is necessary to increase the drought-coping capacity in these regions.It has no significant impact on grain production in central China,East China and South China,so the management and response to agricultural disasters in these regions should not be considered as the main prevention and control focus.According to the results of grey correlation analysis,rice,wheat,corn and soybean in North China,Northeast China,Southwest China and Northwest China should strengthen the control of wind and hail disaster.In central China,East China and South China,more efforts should be made to control corn crops against flood and waterlogging,and more efforts should be made to control rice,wheat and soybean against wind and hail.At the same time,this thesis also put forward other relevant suggestions and measures to improve grain production.