Research On System Dynamics Simulation Of Agricultural Supply Chain Finance

It’s an important problem that China’s agricultural financial needs are not being met and the rural financial development seriously lags behind the whole financial field. As the form of modern agricultural supply chain, and the rapidly developing of family farm, agricultural production scale is becoming large, but the problem of fund shortage becomes seriously. But the innovation financial products were terrible shortage. It restricted the development of agricultural supply chain. Recent years, supply chain finance comes into being and developed rapidly in the world. By supply chain finance, the bank can financing to the enterprise by deepen the relationship with the core enterprise, based on the order form and Accounts receivable and inventory. Undoubtedly, it provides an effective way to solve agricultural financial problems. However, the commercial Banks provide few of service about agricultural supply chain supply chain finance at present. So, How to creatively carry out the agricultural supply chain financial service is a topic that is worthy of further research, combining with the agricultural supply chain and its operating characteristics.This paper is based on the theory of supply chain management and supply chain finance. Using system dynamics method, it constructs the system dynamic model of various products of supply chain finance, studies the operation characteristics of supply chain finance products and the effects to the performance of agricultural supply chain from the perspective of quantitative analysis and then analysis the influence factors of supply chain finance products. This paper provides some proposal of agricultural by the contrast analysis of supply chain finance products.This article mainly includes the following five parts.The first part is the foundation of research. The corresponding part is the first chapter of the paper. It mainly sets forth the research background and research significance of this paper. By reviewing and summarizing the related literature, analyzing the development and research status of supply chain finance, it states the research target and the main research content of this paper and the frame.The second part is the theoretical analysis. The corresponding part is the second chapter of the paper. This research belongs to the multi-disciplinary research. Its research field contains supply chain management and supply chain finance and system dynamics. So, firstly this part sets forth the relevant theory, such as agricultural supply chain and supply chain finance. It analyzes agricultural supply chain finance, advantage and the significance of implementation. Then it summary the way of modeling of system dynamics and put forwards the basic system dynamic model of supply chain. It lays a foundation for the construction of the model the whole article.The third part is the analysis the effect of the capital constraint to the performance of agricultural supply chain and puts forwards the service frame of agricultural supply chain finance. The corresponding part is the third chapter of the paper. On the basis of qualitative analysis of capital constraint in agricultural supply chain, this part creates causal loop diagram and Stock and flow diagram of supply subsystem and distribution subsystem of agricultural supply chain with capital constraint taking diary supply chain for example by using system dynamics. Through the dynamic simulation of supply subsystem and distribution subsystem under the case of random demand and cycle demand, it quantitively studies the characteristics of the operation of agricultural supply chain with capital constraint and analyzes the effects of the capital constrain to the agricultural supply chain. According to capital constraints problem of agricultural supply chain, this paper designs the service frame of agricultural supply chain finance considering the capital demand of each enterprise in the agricultural supply chain and analyzes the supply chain finance products to the agricultural producer and to the distributor.The forth part is the simulation research of agricultural supply chain finance products and implement suggestion. It includes the forth chapter, the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. System dynamic method was further used to simulate the implementation of agricultural supply chain finance and makes a further study to the dynamic characteristic of operation of supply chain financing products and the effect on supply chain performance. It analyzes the effect factors of supply chain finance products and the differences between the products. During the research, through literature research and referring to the practice of financial institutions this part analyzes the characteristics and operating process of agricultural order financing and standard credit of delivery after invoice and confirming storage financing firstly. And then it establishes system structure, main variables and causal relationship, logical and Mathematical relationship of three products. It creates causal loop diagram and Stock and flow diagram. At last, it simulates to the model by the data of dairy farming and milk powder products in the dairy products supply chain and illustrates the system behavior by the changing of some control variables such as inventory level, stock volatility, products out of stock and changes in cash. The results showed:Firstly, Aiming at the capita shortage of agricultural production enterprise in the upstream of supply chain, owing to the longer of agricultural production and the slower speed of sales money collection, agricultural order financing can solve the problem of capital shortage effectively. Compared with no funding, the performance of supply chain achieves an obvious improvement. At the same time, financing ratio and financing period have a marked impact to the financing result. In consideration of the particularity of agricultural production process, the implementation of agricultural order financing must combine the characteristics of agricultural production cycle and then determine the financing proportion and financing period reasonably. Through further simulation analysis, the financing ration and the shortest financing period were reached according to the proportion of financing scale to existing scale of farming and its own funds situation. The result can provide some reference for agricultural order financing.Secondly, studies of standard credit of delivery after invoice and confirming storage financing based on system dynamics confirmed that both of financing way can solve the problem of the capital shortage. But from the point of the performance of agricultural supply chain, Supply chain finance improved the inventory level of joint enterprise of agricultural supply chain. The results also show that there are differences in the two financing products. It mainly reflected in the holding cost of distributor and the effect on the level of inventory of the core enterprise in the agricultural supply chain. Confirming warehouse financing is more advantageous to save the inventory cost of the distributor and reduce the inventory level of core enterprise. So when the distributor chooses supply chain finance products if the products demand is big and the production cycle is short and velocity of turnover of products is rapid, we should use standard financing of delivery after cash. On the contrary, if the production cycle of the agricultural products, the better choice is confirming storage financing. The fifth part is conclusion and suggestion. The corresponding part is the seventh chapter. According to the conclusion of this article and the developmental stage of agricultural supply chain finance of china, this article puts forwards some suggestions to improving the development of agricultural supply chain finance, such as innovating agricultural supply chain financial products and services, giving full play to the role of the core enterprise, strengthen management of agricultural production and operation entity, vigorously developing the third party logistics and enhancing the related supports to agricultural supply chain finance.