Research On Risk Identification Of Cross-border Agricultural Products Supply Chain Based On Immune Theory

In China,the development of agricultural products import and export trade is a top priority.Today,with the rapid development of economic globalization and the continuous updating of scientific and technological information,the traditional industry model is being affected.However,development is bound to face risks.Therefore,how to transform and upgrade traditional agricultural trade,improve the adaptability to the unpredictable market,diversify risks,and reduce trade friction have become important issues in the development of China's agricultural import and export trade.Firstly,this paper uses qualitative analysis and scenario analysis to systematically construct an overall framework for analyzing the risk factors of cross-border agricultural product supply chain,and divides the risk factors of cross-border agricultural product supply chain into three categories according to certain criteria.The method of evaluating the severity of risk based on AHP was designed.The weight of indicators of cross-border agricultural product supply chain risk factors was determined,and the risk identification index system of cross-border agricultural product supply chain was constructed.The principle of a cross-border agricultural supply chain risk management system dealing with risk events in the environment is similar to the ?antibody? resistance ?antigen? in the immune system of an organism.This paper draws on organizational learning theory,selects cross-border agricultural product supply chain node enterprises as research objects,and uses scenario analysis method and flow chart method to construct a risk recognition conceptual model based on immune theory.The model is characterized by memory and environmental adaptability.The function is to identify the severity of the risk event and to perform a simple risk management.On this basis,based on the immune theory,a cross-border agricultural product supply chain risk identification simulation model is constructed.The simulation results show that:(1)The risk of dealing with risk events in the cross-border agricultural product supply chain risk identification immune system increases with the supply chain operation time;(2)The clearance effect of risk events increases with the increase of supply chain operation time;(3)exchange rate risk and partner risk,speed of organizational learning,innovation probability of employee program,and risk sensitivity of node enterprise are all set The results of the cross-border agricultural product supply chain risk identification model have a certain impact.Finally,based on the simulation results,this paper proposes corresponding suggestions for the identification of cross-border agricultural product supply chain risk based on immune theory.It is hoped that through the analysis of this paper,the managers of cross-border agricultural product supply chain will provide theoretical guidance on risk response decision-making,and also provide new ideas and methods for related research.