| Due to that the distinctive differences in the economic and natural conditions in different province and regions in China have resulted in non-equilibrium and heterogeneity of spatial distribution represented by carbon emission reduction among different regions, the research should take the synergy of space geographical factors and multi-dimensional drivers into account in a quantitative way on the convergence of provincial carbon emissions, which could help to decide whether carbon emission reduction task division from the provincial scope or regional countermeasure is fair or rational. Meanwhile, the carbon reduction in different province and regions is simply not an overnight process, but a long-term one. An important limitation to the previous research on the process of carbon emissions convergence is that there is no consideration to the long-term impact of the slow weakening random technology shocks on carbon emissions so that the dynamic process of carbon emissions convergence can not be observed. To sum up, this dissertation is to study the regional carbon emissions convergence of China taking space geographical factors into account and to probe further into the impact of random technology shocks on the long-term dynamic convergence of carbon emissions.In terms of the convergence of China regional carbon emissions, this dissertation begins with the study on per capita carbon emissions convergence, convergence rate and its drivers of provincial domain, the three zones (the east, the central and the western region), and the eight economic regions based on historical carbon emissions data, considering synergistic effect of geospatial and multidimensional drivers.Subsequently, this paper focuses on the relationship among geographical distance, technology diffusion channels and carbon emissions convergence, and models the dynamic characteristics of convergence of carbon emissions as the spatial distance varies.As for the research on the dynamic process of China’s future carbon emissions convergence and the dynamic characteristics of macroeconomic as the economic-environmental systems are affected by technology shocks. this paper introduces the labor market through the improvement and innovation of the current economic-environmental theoretical model, to build the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory model system (DSGE model) free of carbon tax and the system imposing carbon tax. And by way of computer programming, it simulates two kinds of economic environment respectively, that is, the one free of carbon tax and the other with carbon tax on the basis of historical carbon emissions data, so as to observe the impact of technology shocks on dynamic convergence process of carbon emissions and macro-economy. In addition, this paper has calculated the optimal carbon tax value, so that the economic cost of reducing emissions is minimized. With the technology shocks, China’s carbon tax is pro-cyclical with output so that there would be a carbon tax path to realize the function that carbon tax could automatically regulate the economy.Through the in-depth research, this paper makes empirical analysis on the convergence of carbon emissions based on historical data and also sets up a DSGE model to simulate the potential dynamic convergence process when future carbon emissions are attacked by technology shocks, which completely represents the whole change process and its trends of the convergence of carbon emissions. From the combination of time dimension and spatial dimension, it comes to beneficial conclusions which make certain theoretical sense and scientific reference value for the government to formulate carbon economic policy.This study contains six chapters, the specific contents and conclusions of which are as follows:The first chapter mainly shows the background and significance of this study, and makes literature review, with a view to putting forward the starting point for research and ideas.The second chapter is designed to mainly analyze absolute convergence and club convergence of carbon emissions. This chapter first depicts the regional spatial pattern of regional per capita carbon emissions in China. Secondly, it touches upon δ Convergence、absolute β Convergence, the space club convergence and carbon emissions convergence rate of regional per capita carbon emissions in China. The results show as the following points. a) There is no nationwide δ Convergence of carbon emissions, nor is significant δ Convergence existing in the three zones and only the eastern coastal areas in eight regions has δ Convergence; b) There is absolute β Convergence from the year of2005and the year of2010with different time scales, while the eastern coastal areas has absolute β Convergence on different regional scale; c) The research on the space club convergence shows that regional per capita carbon emissions in China presents a strong spatial autocorrelation. The regional grouping of China’s30provinces with the approach of Moran’s I scatter plot turns out that there is spatial club convergence in the L-L region, and it would generate a positive demonstration utility for the neighborhood which is conducive to the convergence of per capita carbon emissions, as the β value in the target region is lower. d) From the point of the convergence rate of the carbon emissions, it is inconsistent with each other in the three regions, the rate in the western region of which is quicker than the rate of that in the east and the central.The third chapter analyzes the drivers of convergence of per capita carbon emissions. This chapter provides a comparative analysis of the convergence of per capita carbon emissions before and after considering spatial factors, discovering that spatial factors can not be ignored. Taking spatial factors into account, it focuses on analyzing the impact of each of the drivers on the convergence of per capita carbon emissions, and explores changes in the impact of the drivers of urbanization at different stages on the convergence of per capita carbon emissions. The empirical results show as the following aspects, a) China has per capita carbon emissions conditional β convergence, and its per capita carbon emissions comply with Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, shaped in an inverted U. Energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization factors have positive correlation with per capita carbon emissions. In other words, the reduction in energy intensity or the proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption and industrial structure optimization facilitate the convergence of carbon emissions, but the acceleration of urbanization is not conducive to the convergence of carbon emissions.b) Further analysis points out that the convergence rate of per capita carbon emissions will be reduced with urbanization level rising. The extent of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions convergence in the central region comes to the greatest, next is the east and the minimal is the western region.The fourth chapter is an expansion and continuation of the former one, mainly concentrating on the research of the impact of spatial distance and technology diffusion channels on carbon emissions convergence. It measures different internal openness by way of building different spatial economic structure and improves the previous spatial econometric methods. And the empirical simulation of distance iteration under different spatial economic structure is reached through computer programming. The results show that China has per capita carbon emissions convergence in the role of control variables of technology diffusion. Meanwhile, the less domestic openness of spatial economic structure in China, the faster would the convergence rate be. Specifically speaking, a) when China highly domestic opens up, the effect of FDI and R&D investment on per capita carbon emissions convergence would weaken, for the domestic openness strengthens the degree of concentration of FDI and R&D investment, which is not conducive to convergence. b) The research on technology diffusion channels of international trade on carbon emissions convergence shows that imports help to promote the convergence of carbon emissions, while exports will lead to the divergence of per capita carbon emissions. Therefore, the export-driven pattern of economic development is not conducive to the development of low-carbon economy.The fifth chapter is to make DSGE simulation of the efficacy of carbon tax policy under the impact of technology shocks. An economic-environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) is built to conduct policy simulation. In the economic environment free of carbon tax and the one imposing carbon tax, it probes into the dynamic process of China’s future carbon emissions convergence and the dynamic characteristics of macroeconomic as the economic-environmental systems are affected by technology shocks. The simulation indicates that a) The carbon tax collection is conducive to the decrease in carbon emissions growth rate under technology shocks and there is the dynamic convergence trend of carbon emissions. Carbon tax in short-term would increase the cost of carbon reduction, but it will reduce the cost in the long run and also will reduce the rate of carbon reduction, b) From the view of macroeconomic dynamic changes, the role of carbon tax will squeeze the margin of output, capital, investment and consumption growth brought by technology shocks in the economic environment of carbon tax collection. The technology shocks will eventually lead to a decrease in employment, c) The optimal carbon tax is calculated to be75.5yuan/ton, which enables to make the economic cost of reducing emissions to a minimum. Under technology shocks, the output and the carbon tax fluctuations is pro-cyclical.and there is an optimal carbon tax path to achieve its regulatory function automatically. The sixth chapter is a summary and discussion. This part is to summarize the contents and main conclusions of this study, pointing out its future research issues to be expanded and the future direction of efforts. |
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