The Comparative Analysis Of Environmental Effects And Economic Effects Of China's Carbon Emission Reduction Policy

With the sustained development of the economy and the large consumption of energy,Carbon dioxide(CO2)and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by excessive global climate change has gradually become the focus of attention.Climate change can not only undermine the stability of the ecosystem,but also adversely affect the economic growth and social stability,and thus becomes a serious obstacle to sustainable development.Currently,China is still in the process of industrialization,the task of maintaining the economic growth stably,improving social welfare and the people's living standards is still very urgent.At the same time,a large number of energy inputs and "coal-based" energy consumption structure have not fundamentally changed,extensive economic growth patterns lead to high carbon intensity.To ensure economic development and promote the decline in carbon intensity,it is necessary to simulate and compare the emission reduction effects of different carbon emission reduction policies,mining all kinds of carbon emission reduction policies on the economic impact of the mechanism and operational mechanism.Optimizing the combination of carbon emission reduction policies and giving full play to the effectiveness of emission reduction policies are also important,they are beneficial to achieve the win-win situation of economic development and energy-saving emission reduction.By comparing the effects of the two emission reduction policies,this paper excavates the mechanism of the of emission reduction fully,and provides policy advice for our country which transforms from the carbon intensity reduction policy to the total carbon emission reduction policy,it is the practical significance of this paper.Firstly,this paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model which includes energy consumption,carbon emission and emission reduction policies to describe the impact of carbon emission reduction policies and carbon intensity reduction policies on carbon emissions,carbon intensity and other economic variables.Then,based on the calibration of important parameters of the model,this paper simulates the environmental effects and economic effects of two different emission reduction policies,to analyze the impact of different emission reduction policies.Finally,Based on the perspective of welfare and the perspective of emission reduction,we have a comparative analysis of the cost and benefit of carbon total and carbon intensity reduction policies in order to further tap the role of emission reduction mechanism.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Both of the carbon total policy and carbon intensity policy can reduce carbon emissions effectively,and achieve the established carbon intensity target.At the same time,the total carbon emission reduction policy is more restrictive for the production activities of enterprises,which can be more effective in controlling energy consumption and carbon emissions.So,the total carbon emission reduction policy has a comparative advantage in the emission reduction effect,while the carbon intensity policy is slightly inadequate.(2)In terms of economic effects,the implementation of emission reduction policies will inhibit economic growth through restricting energy resources.Comparing with the carbon total policy,the negative impact of carbon intensity policy on the formation of economic growth and added value is weaker.Through the element substitution,enterprises achieve the optimal allocation of elements,and promote the use of factors to improve efficiency and the formation of more added value.(3)When the same emission reduction targets are achieved,compared with the carbon intensity policy,under the carbon total policy,social welfare is relatively higher,while the cost of emission reduction is relatively low,easier to achieve.The possible innovations in this paper are:(1)By constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model which includes energy consumption,carbon emission and emission reduction policies,this paper simulates and analyzes the environmental and economic effects of abatement,from the aspect of energy input and capital accumulation.We discuss the question that how emissions reduction policies can effectively balance economic growth with the goal of declining carbon intensity.(2)For the dilemma of carbon emission reduction policies under the dual objectives of economy and environment,we compare the cost and income of two different carbon reduction policies,based on the social welfare and the cost of emission reduction,and then optimize the choice of emission reduction policies.At present,China's emission reduction policy is still mainly focused on carbon intensity emission reduction policies,while the study of this paper shows that carbon total emission reduction policies can improve the total social welfare,at the same time,take into account the reduction of emission reduction costs,as a result,it' s necessary to promote the transformation from carbon intensity policy to carbon emission reduction policy for effective carbon emission reduction activities.In the process of two emission reduction policies being implemented in parallel and step by step,different development level regions can be timely and appropriate to the local enterprises to implement the total carbon,carbon intensity of two different emission reduction targets,avoiding "one size fits all" reduction program.On this basis,we should explore the establishment of the region in line with the reality of the carbon trading mechanism.For the enterprises which have good effect on emission reduction and low degree of difficulty on emission reduction,we should guild and lead them to play their main role in the construction of carbon market,to achieve the balance between a continuous decline in carbon intensity and stable economic growth.