Research On Evalution, Warning And Regulation Of Qinhuangdao’s Sustainable Develpment

With the development of the national economy and social progress, the contradictionbetween economic development, population, resources and environment is becoming moreand more aggravating. As a result, the sustainable development turns to be indispensablefor the development of regional economy. Regional sustainable development is the basisof national as well as global sustainable development, and it is the best choice for futuresustainable development of human. Therefore, it is with important practical significancefor guiding the regional sustainable development to study its development ability,developmental level and degree of coordinated development. From the viewpoint ofsystem control theory, we research the evaluation, warning and regulation ofQinhuangdao’s regional sustainable development. The main works are generalized asfollows:First of all, we study the control system model of regional sustainable developmentof Qinhuangdao. Based on the system cybernetics, we present the administrative operationmap as well as the close loop control model of regional sustainable development. Theproposed model is the basis of the evaluation, warning and regulatory of the regionalsustainable development system. Meanwhile, we analyze the main function andcharacteristics of the sustainable development control system and its subsystems as well asthe relationship between the six subsystems, namely systems of economy, resource,environment, society, population, science and education.Secondly, The control system model of Qinhuangdao’s sustainable development isstudied. We analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the domestic and internationalevaluation index systems and take the analysis of scientific research institutes andmunicipal government and the regional economic experts’ opinion into consideration.Finally, based on the statistics provided by the Municipal Bureau of Statistics, we establishthe evaluation index system of sustainable development of Qinhuangdao, which iscomposed of99basic evaluation indexes, and we also establish the comprehensiveevaluation model of hierarchical multilevel sustainable development level of Qinhuangdao. According to the evaluation model, evaluation procedures, evaluation algorithms andevaluation criteria, we evaluate regional economy, resources, environment, society,population, science and education subsystem and the level of sustainable development andcoordination of Qinhuangdao from2003to2012. The relevant data and charts arepresented as results.Further, taking the tourism system of Qinhuangdao as an example, we analyze theforewarning of regional sustainable development. Based on the tourism statistics ofQinhuangdao from2005to2012, we construct two Qinhuangdao’s tourism sustainabledevelopment forewarning systems via wavelet neural network and extreme learningmachine (ELM) network respectively. The predicted results obtained by the abovementioned systems are compared with those of the forewarning systems built via BPneural network. It shows that the system obtained by extreme learning machine networkperforms better. Qinhuangdao has been attaching great importance to the sustainabledevelopment of city tourism. According to numerical statistics in recent years, it showsthat Qinhuangdao has a strong tourism sustainable development degree.Finally, the problem of regulation and control for regional sustainable developmentsystem of Qinhuangdao is studied. By utilizing the idea of feedback control theory, weanalyze coordination of Qinhuangdao’s regional sustainable development system, andpresent the strategies and advices for future development of Qinhuangdao’s economy,resource, environment, society, population and science and education according to thecurrent development level of Qinhuangao’s economy.