Research On Water Environment Carrying Capacity And Integrated Environment-economy Planning Of Siping City Based On IFMOP

In recent years, with the population growing, urbanization accelerating andeconomic rapid developing in our country, water shortages, water pollution and waterecological degradation which caused by high water consumption and huge amountwater pollutants discharge have become increasingly prominent. And it even threatspeople’s health and became the bottleneck factors of the sustainable development.Siping City is one of the most serious―disaster area‖which is short of water resourceand water environment pollution in Jilin province and even the whole country. As anational eco-civilization construction demonstration area, how to save water andcontrol water pollutant discharge in the case of society-economic development is animportant task in the new period for the development of Siping. This paper takeSiping City as an example to carry out the research on WECC, and on this basis,propose a integrated planning scheme which will provide theoretical reference andtechnical support for the sustainable development of Siping City.Based on sustainable development, system and uncertainty theory, FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation method was applied to evaluate the current situation ofWECC for Siping City in2012. And according to the development and policyplanning on economy, society, water savings and water pollution control in SipingCity, four development programs were set with scenario analysis, then taking "the redline of total amount" as a new carrying standard to calculate WECC for planned yearswas proposed and an Inexact Fuzzy Multi-objective Programming (IFMOP) was builtto predict WECC for Siping City in2020. Furthermore, a integrated planning schemewith the synchronous adjustment plan of industrial structures and the optimalallocation plan of water quality and water quantity was proposed for Siping City based on WECC.The research shows that WECC of Siping City was under the medium level in2012. The most important factors resulted in the low level of WECC were waterresources per capita amount, the intensity of fertilizer using, environmental capacityutilization of COD, environmental capacity utilization of ammonia nitrogen and GDPper capita. In the four different scenarios, there is difference in WECC of Siping Cityin2020. Comparing the predicting results of WECC in the four different scenarios, itcan be known that the water environment carrying GDP scale mainly influenced bythe level of water saving and pollution abatement. The rate of urbanizationdevelopment is the main factor influencing the water environment carryingpopulation size. Under the policy of national strict management of water resourcesmanagement and water environment protection, on account of the strong constraint ofthe total water consumption control red line and the water pollutant discharge controlred line, the water resources and water environment protection policy preferencesdevelopment program in scenarioⅡ is more suitable for the future development inSiping City than the others. In addition, a integrated planning scheme with theindustrial structure optimization program, water resources optimal allocation programand water pollutant discharge limits optimal allocation program in the base of WECCwas proposed. Taking the three industries as an example, the industry structure wasadjusted from25:46:29in2012to the12:49:39or12:50:38. In the water resourcesoptimal allocation,382.33~430.76million m3water was allocated to primary industry,annual reducing3.77%~5.19%;118.45~134.41million m3water was allocated tosecondary industry, annual reducing1.61%~3.15%；28.03~33.44million m3waterwas allocated to tertiary industry, annual increasing4.32%~6.64%. In the waterpollutant discharge limits optimal allocation,43719~52712t COD and1664~1957tammonia nitrogen was allocated to primary industry, annual reducing3.32%~5.55%and3.95%~5.88%;10590~16274t COD and905~1385t ammonia nitrogen wasallocated to secondary industry, annual reducing11.32%~15.95%and5.25%~10.17%. 6956~8299t COD and914~1090t ammonia nitrogen was allocated to tertiary industry,annual increasing4.32%~6.64%.In this paper, on the research methods of WECC, taking "the red line of totalamount" as a new carrying standard to calculate WECC for planned years wasproposed, which has higher timeliness, practicability and the force of law. On theapplication of WECC, proposing a integrated planning scheme for Siping City basedon WECC. From the vertical point of perspective, the water consumption and waterpollutant discharge sectors in complex system of the economy-society-waterenvironment were divided into the sub-industries of primary and secondary industry,which made the accuracy of WECC predictions increase and the detail level ofscheme improve; from the horizontal point of perspective, the integrated planningscheme achieved synchronous adjustment plan of industrial structures and the optimalallocation plan of water quality and water quantity.