Study On The Ecological Carrying Capacity And Its Promotion Countermeasures Of Heze City

With the development of economic globalization, increasingly prominent ecological environment problems become the important factors that affect social and economic sustainable development. Therefore, the study area of ecological carrying capacity is more important. Heze city is located in the southwest of Shandong. The strategy of "Heze breakthrough" and "The southern of Shandong economic uplift belt" makes it development quickly. But, the predatory exploitation and use of natural resources, resulted in its ecosystem balance and pollution degree deepening, and hindered the fast-continued steady development of economy, society and various undertakings. In order to solve the above problems, this study analyzes the eco-carrying condition of Heze through its eco-carrying capacity and tries to figure out the cause of ecological unbalance to suggest ecological carrying capacity promotion measures, and providing certain theoretical basis for Heze's rapid and stable development in the future.Firstly,based on researching a large number of both domestic and foreign literature, it summarizes the connotation and the characteristics and the research object of ecological carrying capacity, and comparing its evaluation method, following certain principles and related theory, using frequency statistics and expert consultation method, and combing with the actual ecological environment of Heze city, building up an index system of ecological carrying capacity, and selecting the index dates during 2004 to 2013 of Heze City, of Heze counties in 2013, and using the methods of subjective and objective to determine the weights, and using hierarchical evaluation model and spatial correlation clustering analysis method, analyzes the spatial and temporal variations of Heze city ecological carrying capacity, finally it compares with other four southern city of Shandong, from the ecological elastic force, resource capacity, environmental capacity, social and economy accommodation force; Mainly according to the development situation and the relevant planning of Heze city, and using multi-objective programming model, the ecological carrying capacity development of the next eight years has been predicted.The results show that: in 2013, contrasting to the other cities of southern Shandong, the ecological carrying capacity of Heze is the minimum level, and the ecological elastic force, resource carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity and social and economy accommodation force of Heze city are lower, especially the resource carrying capacity and social and economy accommodation force are the minimum level. During 2004-2013, the ecological carrying capacity and its subsystems ecological elastic force, resource carrying capacity and environmental capacity of Heze city are on the decline, and only social and economy accommodation force is increasing. In 2013, ecological elastic force, resource carrying capacity, environmental capacity and social and economy accommodation force have apparent differences from the counties of Heze city, but overall the ecological carrying capacity is a little difference. Through multi-objective prediction analysis, the ecological carrying capacity both status type scheme and the modified scheme in the next eight years are lifting, and the ecological elastic force lift at first and lowered later, and the social and economy accommodation force is on the rise. But according to the status of development, the rising speed of ecological carrying capacity is relatively slow, and there is a decreasing tendency in the environmental carrying capacity continues. According to the modified scheme development, the ecological carrying capacity and its each target have increased dramatically. Finally, in this paper the promotion measures of the ecological carrying capacity are put forward, respectively from the ecological elastic force, resource utilization, population control and environmental management, the social and economic regulation.