The Sustainable Development Of Regional Water Environment Carrying Capacity - For Example, In Changchun City

With the aggravation of pollution, scares of resources and decrease of biology diversity, people finally realized that environment is valuable and the supporting ability of it for soc-economy is limited after have received the retaliation comes from nature, this limitation is defined environmental carrying capacity. Water is one part of nature resources, a kind of precious resource and it is the material base of sustainable development and supporting condition at the same time. That is to say water has carrying capacity both for population and for economy, it also has capacity of self-cleanse and can endure pollution in a limited bound. So, the research of environmental capacity of water is important for national economy developmental plan, environmental protection and water sustainable utilization.If human being wants to harmonize with environment, he must develop within environmental carrying capacity. Pursuing economic benefit to excess will make environmental quality decreased and this kind of development is not sustainable development. Combining environmental capacity of water with sustainable development makes for integrate economy, society, environment and resource and brings forward the most fitful measure from the point of strategy. This paper studies Changchun environmental capacity of water using systemic dynamic and Stella model and gives out Changchun environmental capacity of water under different strategies, it gives out the most fitful measure at last combining the characteristic of Changchun.The first part was the theoretical base. It consisted of the theory of sustainable development and the theory of environmental carrying capacity. The origin, conception, characteristic, connotation and relationship of two theories were introduced.The second part of this paper introduced the technologic support, systemic dynamics. Systemic dynamics is good at deal with those great systems that multi-levels, non-linear, complex and time-change. It also could simulate and predict the condition of future. It is suitable of making use of systemic dynamics to study environmental carrying capacity of water.The third part introduced the formulae of water environmental carrying capacity. Environmental capacity is a vector, but it can be quantified using the module of the vector.Changchun being an example was discussed in the forth part. The water environment and it's relation with soc-economy was predicted through systemic dynamics and Stella model. Water environmental carrying capacity of Changchun was calculated by six synthesis indexes.The last part gave out the conclusion. The emphases should be on savings and treatment with pollutant water, increase water quantity of locality and advance the power of water moving if sustainable development of water environmental carrying capacity of Changchun wants to be promoted.