Study On Urban Rail Transit Passenger Forecast And Analysis

Judgment and decision-making of many important issues in the planning anddesign of rail transit projects need the passenger flow forecasting to provide datasupport. However, for the present results of passenger flow forecasting, there is a bigdifference between the results of passenger flow forecasting and the actual passengerflow of urban rail transit, some results are several times different and the passengerflow forecasting results of different research institutions about the same rail transitline are also much different. In response to this phenomenon, in addition to improvingthe forecasting methods and precision, strengthening the evaluation, judgment anddecision-making of the passenger flow forecasting results should be done, therebyenhancing the scientific decision-making and improving the ability to resist risks.Firstly, through the analysis of some domestic typical cases, this papersummaries the law of rail transit passenger flow growth, including the passengergrowth trend of the single rail line; analyzes the network-wide passenger flowdistribution law in the cities which have the world’s more mature rail transit, and takesShanghai and Guangzhou as examples to analyze the growth of the network passengerflow; analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, the averagedistance and passenger transformation characteristics of the rail transit passenger flow.This, for the passenger flow forecasting and the analysis of that, provides a goodbasis.In response to the absence of the domestic urban planning to the distribution ofpopulation and employment, this paper proposes the forecasting method of populationand employment distribution based on urban planning, and for the mechanism of theimpact of the rail transit to population and employment distribution, there-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transit influence isestablished, through introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urbanpopulation.This paper establishes the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flowforecasting method which orients “region and urban area”, proposes model structure system in which two key technology are studied, and for the OD matrix synthesistechnology of “region and urban area”, proposes the weight distribution method, thesimilar gravity model method and the destination choice model method; in thesuper-network, based on the decision-making of super path generalized cost,establishes the combination model of the multi-mode and multi-path split anddistribution.In response to the present situation of low credibility of urban rail transitpassenger flow forecasting, this paper proposes the suggestion that the evaluation ofthe passenger flow forecasting should be strengthened, and establishes the technicalprocess about the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting.This paper takes the study of China’s urban rail transit passenger forecastingand analysis as the breakthrough point, emphasizes the organic combination oftheoretical analysis and practical application, and has some breakthrough and creationin the building of theoretical approach and the suggestion of operability of measures:a) introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urban population, establishingthe re-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transitinfluence; b) establishing the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flow forecastingmethod which orients “region and urban area”; c) establishing the technical processabout the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting. In view of theweakness of this paper, improving the theoretical models and methods, theestablishment of living-employment relationship forecasting model and the reasonableuse of the rail transit passenger flow forecasting results are all the main direction andfocus of future research.