Research On Passenger Flow Forecast Of XM Rail Transit Line 2

The main way to solve the travel pressure and resource shortage caused by the high development of urbanization is to construct modern travel ways.Urban rail transit as clean environmental protection,fast mass public transportation way,students can not only realize a lot of transport capacity,also has the velocity sex,security,punctuality,comfort,enhance the efficiency of underground space utilization of land,and other functions,is the city’s public transport backbone role of modern transportation system,is also a modern city to old and new kinetic energy conversion,speed up the social and economic mobility of effective way.This article through to the urban rail transit passenger flow space-time evolution and influence factors,research reveals that the urban rail transit passenger flow at the beginning of the operation,the immediate and long-term evolution law,puts forward the related factors of passenger flow line site model building method,with XM city line 2 as an example,the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast method is scientific.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)The premise study of passenger flow prediction in XM City.Including the national economy,urban scale,urban layout of the status quo and future development status,the current situation of urban traffic road conditions,motor vehicle ownership and other basic data and future development status;The current situation and future number and distribution of urban population positions,the status quo of population positions along the track and the number and distribution of future,etc.,obtained urban rail transit 1 The full-day passenger flow and peak hour passenger flow before the opening of the line provide the data base for the driving organization arrangement in the early stage of operation;(2)To establish the rail transit demand forecasting model,according to the development forecast of the city in the next year and other relevant planning data,using the traffic model,quantitatively predict and analyze the future urban traffic status of each rail transit network scheme under different traffic strategic modes;(3)Forecast and analysis of passenger flow in XM city.Based on the 专业 software platform,this paper analyzes the passenger flow of the construction scheme of XM rail Transit line Line 2 and the Urban Rail Transit network scheme by using the fine rail transit demand forecasting model,and puts forward the forecast travel demand and the passenger flow index of the rail transit line by using the traffic demand forecasting model;(4)Analysis of passenger flow characteristics.The long-term passenger flow variation curves of each period,passenger flow characteristics and risk analysis and evaluation,reasonable determination of demand scale,guidance of operation organization,evaluation of economic benefits,the results show that the main sensitive factors in the initial stage of passenger flow opening are unbalanced urban traffic supply facilities,bus connection,traffic service level,etc.,so the above-mentioned operational indicators need to be formulated in the initial stage of operation.Consider the actual situation of the city to ensure the scale of passenger flow.